Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Gordon has become a little better organized this evening, with convection intensifying around the center-- a marked improvement from 24 hours ago. A pair of scatterometer passes from 00-01 UTC showed believable maximum winds of 25-30 kt, and 30 kt is chosen out of continuity from the last advisory. The depression has been creeping westward recently, estimated at about 3 kt. As mid-level high pressure builds to the northeast of the cyclone, the tropical cyclone should turn northward on Tuesday and move faster to the north-northeast for the next few days. A frontal wave currently seen about 10 degrees north of Gordon should also cause the cyclone to accelerate midweek as Gordon moves around that feature. The biggest change to the guidance this evening is that most are a bit faster, so the latest NHC prediction is trended in that way. Modest increases in low- to mid-level moisture around Gordon are shown in the model fields during the next couple of days. In combination with generally low shear during that time, these factors suggest that Gordon will be primed for a comeback, and the intensity guidance generally calls for it to become a tropical storm again around midweek. The low-shear conditions should last through late week, so the NHC forecast is nudged upward from 2-4 days, a touch below the model consensus. The shear could get rather prohibitive by day 5 so the intensity forecast is leveled off then, but considerable uncertainty exists at that time frame, with model guidance ranging from a depression to a category 2 hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 19.0N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 22.3N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 24.2N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 25.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 27.5N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:37:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 03:22:48 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 170236 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND COULD RE-INTENSIFY BY MIDWEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -48.8 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND COULD RE-INTENSIFY BY MIDWEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 48.8W ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon could gradually re-intensify by midweek and become a tropical storm again. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170236 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.8W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.8W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N 48.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.3N 47.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.2N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.8N 45.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 44.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 48.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

810
ABNT20 KNHC 162313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean
and has issued the last advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight, which has moved inland over the Carolinas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -48.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 162140 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 48.5W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:35:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:35:21 GMT

Issued at 522 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -48.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 48.5W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:47:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:47:24 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 162037 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate. Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. Since the system is no longer producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the system. Key Messages: 1. Additional considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding is possible across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding for the southern Mid-Atlantic region and southern Appalachians through Wednesday. 2. Gusty winds will continue along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina into this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 33.9N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0600Z 34.4N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1800Z 34.9N 80.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...REFER TO LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 33.9, -78.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 162036 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...REFER TO LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 78.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 78.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, and the low will move inland across the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next day or so, and the low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Gusty winds are expected to diminish this evening along the coast of North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the southeastern North Carolina coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. Refer to your local National Weather Service office for additional information. RAINFALL: The system will bring an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals of 10 inches, across portions of southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across northern South Carolina and the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 8 inches, particularly in the North Carolina Blue Ridge, are possible through Tuesday. Over southeast Virginia and the Virginia Blue Ridge, expect 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For more information, see products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 162036 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 78.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 78.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.4N 79.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.9N 80.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 78.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 162036 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) FLORENCE SC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 281 WTNT42 KNHC 162033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Gordon is producing only a few sporadic bursts of deep convection, mainly over the southern and eastern portion of its circulation. The vertical wind shear does not appear to be very strong at this time, as evidenced by the relatively slow motions of the cirrus clouds over the system. Since the cyclone is situated over a warm ocean, the suppression of convection is probably due to a stable air mass and/or dry air. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt in accordance with an objective estimate of 32 kt from UW-CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number of 30 kt from TAFB. Gordon continues to move slowly westward with a current motion estimate of 270/5 kt. A high pressure area that was north of the system over the past couple of days is shifting westward, and being replaced by a mid-level trough within the next day or two. Also, there is a frontal cyclone located about 10 degrees to the north of Gordon. This feature, along with the trough, should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Although Gordon is expected to at least briefly interact with the frontal wave, the global model guidance indicates that it will retain its identity and move farther north-northeastward over the Atlantic during the forecast period. The official forecast is shifted a little more to the east of the previous NHC prediction and is close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA. Output from the statistical-dynamical SHIPS models shows some increase in the low- to mid-level relative humidity and also suggests some increase in instability during the forecast period. The SHIPS output also shows generally low to moderate vertical shear for the next few days. The official forecast shows some restrengthening after 48 hours, but not as much of an intensity increase as called for by the SHIPS/LGEM predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 19.0N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.3N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 21.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 22.8N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 24.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 27.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 29.0N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch