Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 664 WTNT24 KNHC 040249 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE DEBBY... ...SQUALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Debby was located near 24.1, -83.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 032355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE DEBBY... ...SQUALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 83.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 83.3 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a northward turn on Sunday and a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected as Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL ...4-7 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Debby, located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 22:13:18 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 21:45:46 GMT

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Debby was located near 23.9, -83.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 468 WTNT34 KNHC 032049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 83.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * The Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 83.2 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a northward turn on Sunday and a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday. Surface observations from the Florida Keys and ships in the Straits of Florida indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected as Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas this evening and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Aucilla River, FL ...4-7 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 469 WTNT24 KNHC 032049 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 83.2W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 83.2W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 20:56:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 21:22:56 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032054 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region. A combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby. The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S. trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand, the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 20:50:52 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 775 FONT14 KNHC 032049 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 6(16) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 5(24) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) 4(28) 3(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 2(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 30(39) 7(46) 2(48) 2(50) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 7(31) 1(32) 1(33) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 29(38) 6(44) 2(46) 3(49) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) X(24) 2(26) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) 1(28) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 2(20) 2(22) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 2(20) 2(22) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) 2(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) 1(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 3 11(14) 10(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) 2(30) TAMPA FL 34 1 11(12) 19(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) 2(41) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 7( 7) 41(48) 16(64) 1(65) X(65) 1(66) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 15(15) 32(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 15(63) 2(65) X(65) 1(66) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 11(11) 50(61) 6(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 20(46) 2(48) X(48) 1(49) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MACON GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22) 1(23) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Four, located near the western coast of Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Four was located near 23.1, -82.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 031731 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 82.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Aripeka northward to the Aucilla River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor * West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast this afternoon, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Recent satellite wind data and surface observations from the Florida Keys indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from Cuba and the Florida Keys is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are currently occurring over the Florida Keys. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding expected. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 16:21:16 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 15:39:35 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 14:50:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 14:45:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 15:22:52 GMT