Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 10:45:53 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 09:51:41 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 812 WTNT44 KNHC 040847 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Debby continues to slowly strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center and in fragmented bands on the system's east side. Some of the outer bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and southwestern Florida, producing tropical-storm-force gusts. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm today, and that data will provide very helpful information to evaluate Debby's strength and structure. Debby continues to gradually turn to the right, with the initial motion now estimated to be north-northwestward at 11 kt. The storm is currently located on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic mid-level ridge, and it is headed toward a weakness caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. This steering pattern should cause Debby to turn northward and then north-northeastward during the next day or so, taking the core of the cyclone to the Big Bend region of Florida early Monday. There is high confidence on this scenario, and little change has been made to that portion of the track forecast. While Debby moves across the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall. After Debby makes landfall in Florida, the system is expected to slow down and turn northeastward across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday as the steering currents weaken significantly. There is a lot of model disagreement in whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week. But, a building ridge should cause it to turn northward or northwestward and likely back inland during the middle and latter portions of the week. Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the intensity forecast is also of low confidence. For now, little overall change to the intensity forecast was made, and it shows Debby remaining a tropical storm while meandering near the southeast U.S. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 25.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 5(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 5(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 12(26) 5(31) 4(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) 14(37) 3(40) 3(43) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 2(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 9(25) 2(27) 2(29) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 7 26(33) 22(55) 5(60) 4(64) 2(66) X(66) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 12(13) 32(45) 7(52) 3(55) X(55) 1(56) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 9 26(35) 20(55) 4(59) 3(62) 2(64) 1(65) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 15(16) 22(38) 4(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 45(49) 17(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 11(14) 8(22) 1(23) 1(24) 1(25) 1(26) THE VILLAGES 34 11 35(46) 6(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) ORLANDO FL 34 6 13(19) 5(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 34 18 15(33) 8(41) 1(42) 1(43) 1(44) 1(45) PATRICK AFB 34 19 15(34) 7(41) 2(43) 1(44) 1(45) 1(46) FT PIERCE FL 34 16 10(26) 6(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) 1(35) W PALM BEACH 34 12 7(19) 4(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) FT LAUDERDALE 34 10 6(16) 2(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 11 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 20 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NAPLES FL 34 53 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) FT MYERS FL 34 28 5(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) VENICE FL 34 76 5(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) VENICE FL 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 68 14(82) 2(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) TAMPA FL 50 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) CEDAR KEY FL 34 50 37(87) 5(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 32(32) 11(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 51(52) 25(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) 1(79) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 4( 4) 22(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 2 66(68) 17(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) 1(87) ST MARKS FL 50 X 10(10) 30(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 15 61(76) 8(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) APALACHICOLA 50 X 31(31) 18(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) APALACHICOLA 64 X 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 850W 34 33 54(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 55(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 34 7 44(51) 13(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ALBANY GA 34 X 11(11) 28(39) 5(44) 1(45) X(45) 1(46) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) MACON GA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17) DOTHAN AL 34 X 10(10) 14(24) 2(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 19(22) 6(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 25.5, -84.0 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 618 WTNT34 KNHC 040846 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 84.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for coastal Georgia from the Mouth of St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor * Georgia coast from Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Georgia coast from the Mouth of St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at the Key West Naval Air Station in the Florida Keys. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next several hours, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Sunday morning. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 040846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 84.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 84.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 05:33:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:23:05 GMT

...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 24.9, -83.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 040532 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 83.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 83.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. The center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Wind gusts of 45 mph (72 km/h) and 41 mph (67 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key and the Key West Naval Air Station in the Florida Keys, respectively. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next several hours, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown to Suwannee River, FL ...4-7 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft Aripeka to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum rainfall totals towards 30 inches, across portions of northern Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Sunday morning. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula overnight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida later today. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040527
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 04:23:54 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:47:42 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:51:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:23:05 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:51:26 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:51:26 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 275 FONT14 KNHC 040249 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 5(16) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 5(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 12(24) 5(29) 4(33) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 14(35) 4(39) 3(42) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 2(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 11(24) 2(26) 1(27) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 11(11) 24(35) 21(56) 8(64) 1(65) 1(66) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18) 1(19) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 23(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 13(13) 23(36) 20(56) 7(63) 1(64) 1(65) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) 1(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 19(41) 4(45) X(45) 1(46) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 16(17) 40(57) 7(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 3(27) 1(28) 1(29) THE VILLAGES 34 1 24(25) 25(50) 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) 1(28) COCOA BEACH FL 34 7 15(22) 13(35) 4(39) 3(42) 1(43) 2(45) PATRICK AFB 34 7 15(22) 13(35) 4(39) 3(42) 1(43) 2(45) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 7 12(19) 9(28) 3(31) 3(34) X(34) 2(36) W PALM BEACH 34 7 9(16) 6(22) 2(24) 2(26) X(26) 2(28) FT LAUDERDALE 34 7 7(14) 5(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) 1(23) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 16 6(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 47 10(57) 3(60) 1(61) X(61) 1(62) X(62) FT MYERS FL 34 25 11(36) 3(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) VENICE FL 34 56 23(79) 4(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 1(84) VENICE FL 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 34 29 43(72) 11(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 1(85) TAMPA FL 50 X 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 6 55(61) 27(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 5( 5) 39(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) 1(49) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) 10(57) 1(58) 1(59) X(59) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X 11(11) 49(60) 6(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 1 31(32) 38(70) 5(75) 1(76) X(76) 1(77) APALACHICOLA 50 X 2( 2) 27(29) 5(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 46(49) 30(79) 3(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 6( 6) 35(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 14(15) 32(47) 6(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) ALBANY GA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MACON GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) X(12) 1(13) DOTHAN AL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 7( 8) 15(23) 4(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 794 WTNT44 KNHC 040249 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Debby during the past few hours and have found that the winds have increased slightly and the central pressure has fallen. The NOAA P-3 plane reported SFMR measurements of 35-40 kt east of the center over the Straits of Florida, and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt. Debby is gradually turning toward the right and slowing down, and the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States has created a break in the subtropical ridge, which will cause Debby to move northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the Florida Big Bend region over the next day or two. The track guidance is in good agreement during this period, and the NHC track has only been shifted slightly east to account for a slight relocation of the initial position based on the aircraft data. After 2-3 days, the steering currents around Debby collapse, and the cyclone is expected to creep northeastward at less than 5 kt across northern Florida to near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina by day 5. While there is model disagreement on exactly where Debby will end up on day 5, there is high confidence that the storm will not be moving very fast, and this slow motion will have major implications for the associated hazards, particularly heavy rainfall and flooding. Low vertical shear and very warm waters (as warm as 32 degrees Celsius within Apalachee Bay) are likely to support additional strengthening while Debby approaches the Florida Big Bend. The intensity guidance has increased a bit on this cycle. Most of the regional hurricane models are showing Debby reaching hurricane strength before it reaches the coast, while the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models have increased to the 75-80-kt range. In addition, the Rapid Intensification indices are showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the next 36 hours. Based on these model data, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased to 75 kt in 36 hours, just before the center of Debby is expected to reach the coast. Weakening is anticipated after landfall, but Debby's intensity on days 3 through 5 is highly uncertain and is dependent on whether the center moves over the Atlantic waters and for how long. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 24.4N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Debby was located near 24.4, -83.6 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 663 WTNT34 KNHC 040249 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 83.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.6 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. The center is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night, before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Wind gusts to 49 mph (80 km/h) and 48 mph (78 km/h) were recently reported at the Key West Naval Air Station and Key West International Airport, respectively. The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas tonight through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown to Suwannee River, FL ...4-7 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-6 ft Aripeka to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 18 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through tonight. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg