Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 03:58:19 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 03:41:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:51:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:51:59 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030250 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and pressure field could still be a little elongated within the southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations. The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5. The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande and on the Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the remainder of the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER CUBA 24H 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:51:03 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 030250 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 7(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 6(24) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) 4(30) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 31(38) 5(43) 2(45) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 2(12) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) 1(26) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 29(37) 4(41) 2(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) 2(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 1(27) 1(28) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) 1(19) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 1(20) 2(22) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 1(20) 2(22) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 1(16) 1(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 2(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 1 12(13) 2(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 13(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 24(37) 7(44) 1(45) X(45) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 18(57) X(57) 1(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) X(20) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) 1(29) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) 1(31) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 17(44) 2(46) 1(47) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 1(14) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 11(48) 1(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30) 2(32) 1(33) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) 1(19) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Four was located near 21.4, -79.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030249 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba overnight and on Saturday, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030249 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022347
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four, located over central Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Berg

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING ACROSS CUBA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Four was located near 21.4, -78.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 551 WTNT34 KNHC 022346 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING ACROSS CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 78.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression tonight or on Saturday while over Cuba or the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 22:04:48 GMT

...DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING OVER CENTRAL CUBA... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Four was located near 21.4, -78.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 110 WTNT34 KNHC 022155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 2...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Updated to include the Storm Surge Watch in the summary block ...DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING OVER CENTRAL CUBA... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 78.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach to Boca Grande. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Aripeka to the mouth of the Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 21:31:31 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 20:47:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 20:37:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 20:37:49 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022036 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However, the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 25 kt. The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward, and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas receive the strongest impacts. There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic after 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST 120H 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 022036 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 1(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 4(20) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 4(25) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 3(38) 2(40) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) 1(19) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 2(37) 1(38) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) 1(20) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 1(18) 1(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) 1(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) 1(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) X(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN