...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON MONDAY... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 27.7, -84.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 042051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON MONDAY... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 84.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Saint Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina has been changed to a Storm Surge Warning. The Hurricane Warning is extended west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass. The Tropical Storm Watch from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Florida and Georgia coast from Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Bonita Beach Florida is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Bonita Beach * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.4 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast around midday Monday. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane tonight, with additional strengthening likely before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch area early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm watch area late Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...5-8 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 042051 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 4(17) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 4(19) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 3(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 8( 9) 5(14) 5(19) 7(26) 5(31) 3(34) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 16(19) 8(27) 7(34) 8(42) 3(45) 2(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 9(12) 6(18) 5(23) 3(26) 2(28) 2(30) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 22 39(61) 6(67) 1(68) 2(70) X(70) 1(71) KINGS BAY GA 50 1 12(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 7 58(65) 7(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) 1(74) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 30(30) 5(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WAYCROSS GA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 25 33(58) 6(64) 1(65) 2(67) 1(68) 1(69) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 9(10) 3(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 9 38(47) 4(51) 1(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 11(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 57 19(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) GAINESVILLE FL 50 12 17(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 8(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) 1(18) THE VILLAGES 34 36 9(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) THE VILLAGES 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 7 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 10 10(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) 1(26) 1(27) PATRICK AFB 34 11 10(21) 3(24) X(24) 1(25) 2(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) W PALM BEACH 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) FT MYERS FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 74 X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) TAMPA FL 34 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 1(83) TAMPA FL 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CEDAR KEY FL 34 90 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CEDAR KEY FL 50 73 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 64 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 71 24(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 16 47(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 88 11(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 49 30(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ST MARKS FL 64 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 34 90 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 1(94) APALACHICOLA 50 54 13(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) APALACHICOLA 64 13 13(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 34 93 1(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 290N 850W 50 76 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GFMX 290N 850W 64 30 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 34 61 9(70) 1(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) PANAMA CITY FL 50 7 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALBANY GA 34 7 59(66) 4(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ALBANY GA 50 X 22(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ALBANY GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) MACON GA 34 2 13(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) 1(24) DOTHAN AL 34 5 24(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 1(32) DOTHAN AL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 7 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 042051 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.4W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.4W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.1N 84.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.7N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.9N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 32.6N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 84.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

152
ABNT20 KNHC 041734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms, and earlier satellite wind data showed winds of 30-35
mph just north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for some slow development of this system over
the next week as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph,
crossing the Windward Islands early this week and moving into the
central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 27.3, -84.4 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041736 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 84.4W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...5-8 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 16:30:42 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:49:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:58:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:58:13 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041457 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form. The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft. The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame. Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. 4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:57:50 GMT

...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 27.0, -84.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka, Florida including Tampa Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Dry Tortugas is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 84.3 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For western Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 041456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 5(17) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 3(21) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 3(23) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 3(26) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 12(32) 5(37) 3(40) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 9(34) 12(46) 3(49) 1(50) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 8(25) 7(32) 1(33) 1(34) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 12 24(36) 25(61) 4(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) 1(20) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 20(22) 38(60) 3(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 13 23(36) 23(59) 2(61) 3(64) 1(65) X(65) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 15(19) 22(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) 1(45) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 23 33(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 1(62) GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) THE VILLAGES 34 23 17(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) THE VILLAGES 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 6 7(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) COCOA BEACH FL 34 13 9(22) 5(27) 1(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 13 9(22) 5(27) 2(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) FT PIERCE FL 34 9 6(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 6 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 17 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) FT MYERS FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 82 X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) VENICE FL 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 75 4(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CEDAR KEY FL 34 78 14(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) CEDAR KEY FL 50 29 38(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CEDAR KEY FL 64 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 8 60(68) 3(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 28(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 16 65(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ST MARKS FL 50 1 45(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ST MARKS FL 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 45 30(75) 2(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) APALACHICOLA 50 9 43(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 64 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 67 17(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 290N 850W 50 47 26(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GFMX 290N 850W 64 4 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PANAMA CITY FL 34 16 28(44) 5(49) 1(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALBANY GA 34 2 13(15) 25(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ALBANY GA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) MACON GA 34 1 2( 3) 11(14) 4(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) DOTHAN AL 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOBILE AL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 599 WTNT24 KNHC 041454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 84.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Debby was located near 26.3, -84.2 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been extended northward along the Georgia and South Carolina coast to the South Santee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.2 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Debby is expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Sand Key in the Florida Keys. The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next several hours, in the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River, FL to, FL...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Suwannee River, FL...4-7 ft Aucilla River, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft Aripeka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. For Cuba, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through this morning. This will result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week
as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the
Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and
western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 10:45:53 GMT