Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 022035 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 78.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 78.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W...NEAT COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 17:41:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 18:18:01 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four, located over eastern Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

...DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING EASTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Four was located near 21.1, -77.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021732 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING EASTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 77.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 15:16:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 15:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 76.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 76.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 75.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 15:00:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 15:00:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 021459 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest impacts. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend. 4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Four was located near 20.9, -76.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 021456 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 5(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 3(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 3(35) 2(37) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) 1(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) 2(37) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) 1(20) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) 1(14) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) 1(22) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) 1(22) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 20(43) 1(44) X(44) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 33(44) 1(45) X(45) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 1(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly
organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave
is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then
emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the
southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move near or over
Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida
tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of
Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of
Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012338
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward near or
over Cuba on Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida
Friday night or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for additional development after that time, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits
of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg