Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 648 WTNT44 KNHC 031442 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Tropical Depression Four has become somewhat better organized this morning, with the circulation becoming better defined over western Cuba and curved convective bands forming close to the center in the southern semicircle. However, the circulation is still somewhat elongated with multiple low-level vorticity centers rotating around the mean center. The initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt based on surface observations in the Florida Keys and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The depression appears to be starting its northwestward turn with the initial motion now 300/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a break in the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is expected to turn northward into this break by 24-36 h. This should be followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly after 72 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S. trough. The current GFS and ECMWF forecast the system to move into the Atlantic, and then turn back toward the southeastern U.S. coast by 120 h. On the other hand, the Canadian model moves the cyclone slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track shows a slower forward motion than the previous track due to changes in the GFS forecast since the previous advisory. After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for intensification. Due to the lack of internal organization, the initial intensification is likely to be slow. However, a faster rate of development is likely once the system gets better organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to uncertainty of whether the center will reach the Atlantic and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough interaction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday morning. River flooding is also expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday in portions of the Florida Gulf Coast and Big Bend region where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and in the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the west coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River. Life-threatening storm surge is possible west of Aucilla River to Indian Pass and south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.8N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 24.3N 83.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 26.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 30.7N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1200Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 031442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 5(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 6(22) 4(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 16(29) 2(31) 3(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 1(14) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 14(28) 2(30) 3(33) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) 1(16) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 3(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) 3(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 2(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 9( 9) 15(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) 1(30) TAMPA FL 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 7(36) 1(37) 1(38) 1(39) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 23(54) 3(57) X(57) 1(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) 1(22) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 23(45) 4(49) 1(50) 1(51) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 16(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 3(30) 1(31) 1(32) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Four was located near 22.8, -82.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 753 WTNT34 KNHC 031441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 82.0W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the coast of Florida from Aripeka to the mouth of the Aucilla River. A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the coast of Florida west of the mouth of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Aripeka northward to the Aucilla River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor * West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 82.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected today and tonight, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from Cuba is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are currently occurring over the Florida Keys. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding expected. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 031441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 82.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 82.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.3N 83.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.3N 84.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.2N 84.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.7N 83.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 31.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Four, located near the southern coast of Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION PASSING OVER WESTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Four was located near 22.2, -81.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 031131 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION PASSING OVER WESTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 81.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Aucilla River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from Cuba is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Chassahowitzka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 10:10:32 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 09:49:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 09:09:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 09:09:55 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030900 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Small bursts of deep convection have continued near the estimated center of the depression, with some skeletal convective bands over the outer portions of the circulation. Earlier scatterometer data revealed the strongest winds were occurring to the south and east of the center, offshore of the southern coast of Cuba. The overall organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little overnight, and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier scatterometer winds and recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The estimated motion of the depression is still west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The influence of an upper-level trough over the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and then northward this weekend as it moves toward a break in the subtropical ridge. This motion will bring the system across western Cuba this morning, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and toward the Florida Big Bend region on Sunday and Sunday night. There is reasonably good confidence in this portion of the track forecast, and only slight westward adjustments were made to the NHC prediction based on the latest track consensus aids. After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead of an upper trough (GFS) or get left behind and meander over the southeastern U.S. or near the coast (ECMWF). After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for intensification. The latest NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by tonight, with additional strengthening expected while it moves across deep warm waters in a weak shear environment. The regional hurricane models and statistical guidance continue to indicate some potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region. Although the latest NHC forecast does not explicitly show the cyclone becoming a hurricane, note that additional strengthening could occur between 48-60 h. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond day 3, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain and highly dependent on whether the center stays inland or emerges off the Atlantic coast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 22.0N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 08:59:57 GMT

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Four was located near 22.0, -80.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 80.7W ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM SSE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Aucilla River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to south of Yankeetown, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Channel 5 Bridge has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Aucilla River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 80.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Chassahowitzka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 030857 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 6(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 7(25) 4(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 22(34) 5(39) 1(40) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) 1(18) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 19(32) 5(37) 2(39) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 2(16) 1(17) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) 2(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) 2(20) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 7(36) 1(37) X(37) 1(38) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 17(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 34(55) 6(61) 1(62) X(62) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 7(48) 1(49) X(49) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 31(53) 5(58) 1(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030856 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 80.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 80.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 80.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Four was located near 21.6, -80.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030550 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 80.1W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Dry Tortugas * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 80.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a slower motion toward the north and then the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across Cuba this morning, and then move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, potentially reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast tonight and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030530
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Four, located near the southern coast of Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart