Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160241 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a better look at the system's structure. It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern United States. There is general agreement on this track in the models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the ECMWF model. The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -46.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 46.8W ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 46.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 160239 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 13 13(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 22 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 34 26 4(30) X(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) SURF CITY NC 34 50 7(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) WILMINGTON NC 34 60 7(67) X(67) X(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) BALD HEAD ISL 34 85 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 23 23(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 80 8(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) LITTLE RIVER 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 82 8(90) X(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) MYRTLE BEACH 50 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 70 11(81) X(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) CHARLESTON SC 34 33 7(40) X(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Eight was located near 32.2, -77.9 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 874 WTNT33 KNHC 160239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 77.9 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm overnight or tomorrow morning, and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 875 WTNT23 KNHC 160239 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 90SE 120SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory. The tropical depression continues to move south of due west, estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop, related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior advisory. Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days. In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:34:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 160234 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152342
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Gordon, located over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, located a couple hundred miles of the
southeastern U.S. coastline.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 23:40:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:28:58 GMT

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ERRATICALLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Eight was located near 32.1, -77.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 225 WTNT33 KNHC 152340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ERRATICALLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 77.8W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and the vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 152058 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep convection over and around the center, it is becoming more likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time with an initial intensity of 40 kt. There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions. the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 20:58:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:28:58 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 152057 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 17(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 7(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 8(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SURF CITY NC 34 16 15(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) WILMINGTON NC 34 16 15(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BALD HEAD ISL 34 40 18(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 7 36(43) 7(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 34 38 29(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 45 28(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 48 28(76) 2(78) X(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 27 27(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 7 15(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Eight was located near 32.0, -78.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 152056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. The disturbance is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the potential tropical cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch