5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 20:32:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152031 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon's center remains well displaced to the west of the area of deep convection. There recently was a convective burst near the center, and it remains to be seen if this is an intermittent pulse of convection or if the system will try to maintain convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased between 25 to 35 kt. Using an average of these estimates, the intensity for this advisory is set to 30 kt, and Gordon has weakened into a tropical depression. The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current motion estimate of 260/7 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level ridge to to the north. The steering flow is expected to weaken as the ridge to the north becomes less pronounced, which should result in Gordon slowing down considerably. By late in the forecast period, a trough develops to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, nudged slightly to the right and a little faster towards the end of the period near the HFIP corrected consensus. Gordon continues to experience strong westerly vertical wind shear and is within fairly stable airmass. It still remains possible that the the system could degenerate into a remnant low, as it struggles to produce convection. The environmental conditions improve towards the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GORDON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.2, -46.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 46.1W ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 46.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 46.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 152030 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151753
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. Coast (AL95):
A non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal
boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast,
and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low
is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters
of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South
Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during
the next day or so if the associated front dissipates and showers
and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is
likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for
flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to
portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the
next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor
the system's progress. Additional information can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:59:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 15:23:00 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151457 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon's center remains displaced at least 120 n mi to the west of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Using a shear pattern from satellite imagery, Dvorak data T-numbers correspond to an intensity below tropical storm strength. However,scatterometer data, which did not completely sample the circulation, suggest that the system's intensity may still be close to to 35 kt, so Gordon is kept at tropical storm status for this advisory. The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current motion estimate of 250/8 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. This high is forecast to gradually weaken which should result in a slowing of the cyclone's forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, the high is predicted to shift farther west, resulting in a turn toward the north. By late in the forecast period, a broad trough becomes established to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is reasonably close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus. Gordon has been experiencing strong westerly vertical wind shear for the past couple of days, associated with a large upper-level trough over the eastern Atlantic. The global models show this trough moving eastward, away from the tropical cyclone. As a result, there may be some relaxation of the shear over the next several days. Although Gordon has been disrupted so much by the shear that it could degenerate into a remnant low soon, the more conducive upper-level environment predicted by the dynamical guidance could result in some restrengthening. This is also indicated by the latest SHIPS model output. As a compromise, the official forecast shows little change in strength through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.2N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.1N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 19.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 19.4N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 21.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

...GORDON POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.2, -45.5 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151456 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 45.5W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.5 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 151456 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151455 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 46.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.4N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. Coast (AL95):
A non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal
boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast,
and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low
is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters
of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South
Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during
the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and showers
and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is
likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for
flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to
portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the
next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor
the system's progress. Additional information can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150900 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 08:39:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 09:22:56 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150838 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed center of circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this morning. Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down considerably. A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than 5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on days 3-5. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast, trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5. Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.6, -44.8 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 44.8W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 44.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and it could degenerate into a remnant low at any time during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 150838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG