000
ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as
the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development
is expected.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days
as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where additional
development is possible.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves northward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

956
ABNT20 KNHC 221754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda. Development of this system is not expected due to dry air
and increasing upper-level winds during the next couple of days
while the low moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not
become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains
embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical
depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become
better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to
10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move
westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its
center. Although environmental conditions are not very favorable
for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled
out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the
system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions
of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa over the next few days. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

087
ABNT20 KNHC 212330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of
Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers displaced well
to the east of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon)
located over one thousand miles southwest of the Azores.
Development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly
northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly northward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of
next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over one thousand miles southwest of the
Azores. Significant development of this system is not expected
while it moves slowly northwestward over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions do not appear
conducive for significant development of this system during the next
couple of days while it drifts northwestward and then northward at
about 5 mph over the central or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of
Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210510
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores. Significant development of this system is not expected
while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing showers and a few
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual subsequent development of this
system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds are keeping showers and thunderstorms
displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the
remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores. Significant development of this system is not expected
while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 675 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms have been displaced farther away from the
center of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon) located
over a thousand miles southwest of the Azores due to strong
upper-level winds. Significant development of this system is
not expected while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 650 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central
or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Gordon, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than a
thousand miles southwest of the Azores. Due to strong upper-level
winds, any additional development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while it meanders over the central subtropical
Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central or western
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

677
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

873
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure has
formed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward.
After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the central
subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
Some development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves northward or north-northeastward .
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has become a little more
concentrated over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this
system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the central
subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves northward
or north-northeastward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. Some development of this system is possible while it
moves generally northward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico
through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
This system is forecast to interact with another area of low
pressure to its west while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. While environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development by the
end of this week, a tropical depression or storm could still re-form
in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the
central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased tonight with a
well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of the remnants of Gordon. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive, but some additional development of this
system is possible as it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the
north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin