5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:33:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:23:10 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 985 FONT12 KNHC 162032 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 871 WTNT22 KNHC 162032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.5W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.5W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 48.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N 47.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 17:47:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:29:32 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, near the coast of the Carolinas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 33.1, -78.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161746 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina by this evening and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next day or so, especially after the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A NOS station at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). A C-MAN station at Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52 km/h) and a gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions within the warning area are expected to diminish through late this afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, is expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, is expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:52:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:29:32 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 161452 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids. With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next several hours. 2. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 32.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 34.3N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.9, -78.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, but steady weakening is anticipated after the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph (107 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, is expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, is expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 161451 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 12 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 55 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 126 WTNT23 KNHC 161450 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 78.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 78.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.3N 79.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:49:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 15:22:52 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161447 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Deep convection has persisted, since last night, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation of Gordon. This activity is limited and not particularly well organized however, with the coldest cloud tops near -70 deg C. Based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The cyclone has been moving generally westward over the past day or so while embedded in the flow on the south and southeast side of a mid-level ridge. During the next couple of days, the ridge is forecast to shift westward and weaken while a trough digs to the north and northeast of Gordon. This flow evolution, along with the interaction with a developing frontal cyclone about 10 degrees to the north of the tropical cyclone, should result in a turn toward the north in 36 hours or so. Some of the global models are showing a partial merger of Gordon with the frontal wave, but it appears likely that the system will remain distinct as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous NHC prediction, and is near or west of the dynamical model consensus tracks. Westerly vertical wind shear over Gordon has abated, but the environment is still a bit dry. The dynamical guidance indicates a further decrease in shear with some increase in low- to mid-level humidities in a few days while the system remains over warm waters. Therefore, restrengthening is forecast to begin around 60 hours, in general agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 19.2N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 23.1N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 26.0N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 28.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.1, -48.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 48.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 48.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161446 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 48.1W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 48.1W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.2N 48.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.5N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.6N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N 47.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 45.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 161447 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 12:00:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 09:29:06 GMT