000
ABNT20 KNHC 182325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some
slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized over the central
tropical Atlantic in association with the remnants of Gordon. This
system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some
slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180511
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized over the central
tropical Atlantic in association with the remnants of Gordon. This
system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its north
while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive
for development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm
could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly northward
over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form this weekend over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of
this system is possible through early next week while it moves
slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172320
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
the remnants of Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon)
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for redevelopment later this week, and a tropical
depression or storm could form by this weekend while the system
moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:01:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 095 WTNT42 KNHC 171500 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Gordon Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 Gordon is no longer a tropical cyclone. The convective structure has degraded since the overnight hours, with only small bursts of convection occurring to the south and east of the estimated center position. More importantly, recent scatterometer data indicate the system does not possess a well-defined, trackable center, with an elongated structure more indicative of a trough of low pressure. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of Gordon. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the scatterometer data, although this could be generous. The remnants are expected to move northward to north-northeastward over open waters during the next few days while rotating around a non-tropical low currently positioned to its north. While the structure is unlikely to improve in the short term, there are indications in the global models that the remnants of Gordon could redevelop later this week once the system moves into a more moist environment and gains some distance from the nearby frontal low. NHC will continue to monitor the remnants of Gordon for signs of organization and the possibility of redevelopment later this week. Information on the potential for regeneration will be contained in the Tropical Weather Outlook. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.5N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF GORDON 12H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 530 FONT12 KNHC 171458 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF GORDON WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS ...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Gordon was located near 19.5, -49.1 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 351 WTNT32 KNHC 171458 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Gordon Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 ...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 49.1W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Gordon were located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are forecast to move northward to north-northeastward at a similar forward speed for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171457 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 08:46:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 09:23:11 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170845 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 After becoming a bit better organized Monday evening with persistent deep convection over the low-level center, Gordon's convective organization has been steady during the overnight hours. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 25-35 kt, while recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 31-36 kt range. Based on these intensity estimates as well as taking into account earlier ASCAT data, Gordon's intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The ASCAT passes Monday evening helped locate the center, but the center has been difficult to find since that time. Recent satellite images suggest that the center may be near the northern edge of the central convective area. The motion is still estimated to be westward, or 265/3 kt, but models indicate that the northward turn should begin within the next few hours. A frontal low currently located several hundred miles north of Gordon has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which will induce a northward and then a north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed during the next couple of days. Gordon should pass east of this feature Wednesday night or Thursday as it is steered by mid-level high pressure to the east of the cyclone. Some of the global models show this ridge building to the northeast of Gordon, which could cause Gordon to bend more toward the north in 4 to 5 days. There are significant speed differences as well as cross-track spread at days 4 and 5. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through 48 h, but is nudged to the west of the previous official forecast beyond 48 h, closer to the latest consensus aids. During the 3 to 5 day time period, the NHC forecast is slower than the latest GFS model and well to the east of the latest ECMWF global model. Gordon's intensity forecast is challenging. Environmental conditions appear moist enough for Gordon to at least maintain its intensity during the next couple of days, given the weak vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, global models do not show Gordon intensifying much during the next couple of days as the cyclone interacts with a weakening non-tropical low, currently located north of Gordon. Some strengthening is likely once Gordon moves past this feature, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in what the upper-level winds will look like over the cyclone in the day 3 to 5 period. The GFS model shows moderate southwesterly shear during that time, whereas the ECMWF and other global models suggest stronger shear from the west or northwest, which would be a less favorable direction and would likely prevent further strengthening. As a result, there is a large spread in the intensity guidance, leading to below average confidence in the NHC intensity forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains near the low end of the intensity guidance through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 19.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 21.7N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 23.3N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 25.1N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 26.3N 45.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 27.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 30.0N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -49.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024 ...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 49.0W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 49.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon could gradually re-intensify and become a tropical storm again later this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 170838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170838 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 49.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 49.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 48.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.7N 48.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 47.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.1N 46.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.3N 45.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 27.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 30.0N 44.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170554
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen