5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:01:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:23:13 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:00:14 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 279 WTNT44 KNHC 240859 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized. A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value. The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt. This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower, with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future track refinements. Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall. Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches and warnings are likely later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by local officials. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Nine was located near 18.9, -83.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240858 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 240858 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 2(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 2(51) X(51) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 31(41) X(41) X(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 56(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 65(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 77(79) X(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 2(56) X(56) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 2(60) X(60) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 67(68) 1(69) X(69) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 71(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 4(43) X(43) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) X(32) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 27(27) 17(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 32(33) 29(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240858 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240550
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become more concentrated
since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Nine was located near 18.6, -82.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240549 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 82.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:55:44 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:56 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:41:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:41:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:23:41 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 967 WTNT44 KNHC 240239 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that there has been little change in the organization of the system since earlier today. Most of the deep convection is over the eastern part of the broad circulation. Animation of proxy-vis GOES images, and radar observations from Grand Cayman Weather Service suggest that the disturbance still does not have a well-defined center of circulation, so the system is kept as a potential tropical cyclone for the time being. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt which is in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area in a few hours to provide a better description of the system's structure along with an updated intensity estimate. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330/5 kt. During the next day or so, the disturbance is expected to turn northwestward along the southern and southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure area. Then, the high is expected to shift eastward while a mid-level trough drops into the central United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. There is good agreement in the track guidance, and the official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical consensus model, HCCA, prediction. This is also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. An upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula has been imparting some southwesterly vertical wind shear over the disturbance. This has probably caused a temporary disruption in development. Dynamical guidance shows this low weakening with time, resulting in a reduction of shear in an environment that is otherwise very conducive for intensification. The system is projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content, which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane strength at landfall. It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 18.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 18.4, -82.4 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240238 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 82.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 240238 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 14(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 7(57) X(57) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 11(50) X(50) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 5(55) X(55) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 4(38) X(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 3(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) X(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 1(63) X(63) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 66(67) 1(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 77(77) 2(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 2(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) 10(65) X(65) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 7(66) X(66) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 69(70) 3(73) X(73) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 4(45) X(45) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 74(75) 2(77) X(77) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 1(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 4(60) X(60) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 19(59) X(59) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 22(41) X(41) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 29(49) X(49) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 12(43) X(43) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 13(13) 56(69) 11(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 23(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240238 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 82.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 18.3, -82.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.