Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 242057 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) X(48) X(48) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) X(48) X(48) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 39(52) X(52) X(52) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 24(41) 1(42) X(42) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 19(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 36(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 57(64) 6(70) X(70) X(70) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 53(56) 18(74) X(74) X(74) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 43(43) 40(83) X(83) X(83) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) X(44) X(44) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 60(69) X(69) X(69) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) X(28) X(28) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 60(73) X(73) X(73) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 47(78) X(78) X(78) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) X(49) X(49) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 35(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 42(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) X(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 39(60) X(60) X(60) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) X(53) X(53) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) X(37) X(37) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 60 26(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) COZUMEL MX 50 5 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 73 16(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 21 8(29) 7(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242057 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241753
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
formed Tropical Storm Helene, located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite surface wind data from earlier today showed a broad open
trough associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 17:53:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 16:02:00 GMT

...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.4, -84.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the U.S. later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 84.5 West. Helene has been wobbling a bit now that a well-defined has just recently formed, but the longer-term motion is toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea to near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Cuba and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:55:23 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:41:52 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:00:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:00:47 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 14:59:54 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241459 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm Helene at this time. Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt) as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence. However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in the future. Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence. Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There could be some increase in shear around the time the system reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system could reach the coast as a major hurricane. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 241459 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) X(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 29(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 45(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 64(81) X(81) X(81) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 1(70) X(70) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 70(74) X(74) X(74) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 60(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 1(57) X(57) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) DOTHAN AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 13 51(64) 4(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COZUMEL MX 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 37 45(82) 7(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 15 11(26) 6(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.5, -84.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the U.S. later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Mexico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Lower Florida Keys beginning on Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

337
ABNT20 KNHC 241153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 the center of Nine was located near 19.2, -83.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241151 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 83.5 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 10:05:21 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:40:28 GMT