Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate strong winds are nearing the coast and will spread onshore during the next few hours. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 offshore of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through late this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, located off the coast of the Carolinas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:46:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 09:29:06 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 830 WTNT43 KNHC 160845 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the center has not become well defined. The associated deep convection has a generally linear orientation and has been displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt. The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast, although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the ill-defined nature of the center. The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland. Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through this evening. 2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 742 FONT13 KNHC 160845 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 9 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 31 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 34 42 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 27 19(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) LITTLE RIVER 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 83 2(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MYRTLE BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 91 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CHARLESTON SC 34 41 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 12 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.4, -78.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:45:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 09:23:08 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160844 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160844 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in the previous NHC advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt. Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today. Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change, Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that direction. Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few days, although some slight moistening of the environment is possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3 to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5 days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon will survive in the short term. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.2, -47.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 47.5W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion is expected during the next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 160843 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160843 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 05:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 03:28:46 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160549
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, located approximately one hundred miles
offshore of the coast of South Carolina.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

...DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.2, -78.1 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160549 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 78.1W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 78.1 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area this afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm today, and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41004, located about 45 miles (75 km) southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur today across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:41:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 03:28:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160241 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a better look at the system's structure. It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern United States. There is general agreement on this track in the models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the ECMWF model. The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake