...NADINE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Nadine was located near 16.8, -91.8 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 704 WTNT35 KNHC 200839 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nadine Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...NADINE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 91.8W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nadine was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue through this morning. On the forecast track, Nadine will move across portions of southern Mexico this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200839 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 91.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 91.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 93.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 91.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200535
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nadine, located inland near the border of northern
Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas, and on Hurricane Oscar,
located a short distance east of the Inagua Islands in the
southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:34:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 03:28:44 GMT

...OSCAR APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 21.3, -72.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200534 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest is forecast later today, and the center of Oscar is forecast to reach the coast of Cuba tonight. A turn toward the north and northeast is expected in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so, but weakening is anticipated tonight and Monday after the center crosses the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight into Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:58:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 03:28:44 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200254 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Satellite images indicate the center of Oscar passed very near Grand Turk Island earlier this evening. Passive microwave data show the tiny hurricane has a compact inner core with a small curved band that wraps around much of its circulation. In the past several hours, the cloud pattern has become a little less symmetric, with a sharp edge to the cloud pattern on the northwest side. The conventional satellite intensity estimates remain too low relative to what the aircraft found this afternoon, and without any new observations, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Oscar on Sunday. Oscar continues moving westward at about 10 kt, but it is forecast to turn slightly south of due west during the next day or so while moving on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should bring the center of Oscar very near or over Great Inagua in the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday, then toward the northeastern coast of Cuba through Sunday night. There has been a southward shift in the latest track guidance, with more models indicating Oscar could make landfall and move inland over eastern Cuba in 24-36 h. The latest NHC prediction has been adjusted to reflect this and lies closest to the simple consensus TVCN and GFEX aids. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, as the extent and duration of land interaction will dictate the depth of the vortex and how it is steered. For now, the longer-range forecast still follows the ECMWF, which shows Oscar turning northward and accelerating northeastward through midweek ahead of an amplifying upper trough. The intensity forecast for Oscar remains challenging, since its compact size makes it susceptible to more rapid intensity fluctuations. While some near-term intensification cannot be ruled out, satellite trends indicate the hurricane could be starting to feel the effects of northwesterly shear, which the global models insist will increase during the next 12-24 h. The NHC forecast still shows Oscar reaching the coast of Cuba as a hurricane on Sunday night, and the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northern coast. Afterwards, land interaction and stronger shear should induce weakening, which could occur even faster than forecast if the center of the small cyclone remains inland as long as some of the guidance suggests. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the northern coast of Cuba. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and along the north shore of Cuba later on Sunday. 3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding along with the potential of mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 200253 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 16(30) 1(31) X(31) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 16(24) 3(27) X(27) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 23(25) 14(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...TINY OSCAR PASSING SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Oscar was located near 21.3, -72.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200253 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TINY OSCAR PASSING SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the northern coast of Cuba for the province of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest is forecast on Sunday, and the center of Oscar is forecast to reach the coast of Cuba on Sunday night. A turn toward the north and northeast is expected early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so, but weakening is anticipated on Sunday night and Monday after the center crosses the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across portions of the warning area in the Southeastern Bahamas overnight into early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Sunday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba Sunday night into Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 043 WTNT21 KNHC 200252 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:41:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 03:22:50 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 347 WTNT45 KNHC 200241 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Nadine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine has been moving farther inland over northern Guatemala, and there are no observations of tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, the system was downgraded to a tropical depression at the intermediate advisory. Belize ground-based radar shows that Nadine has maintained a decent mid-level circulation and therefore, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico on Sunday. The depression is moving just south of west at 265/12 kt. A slightly quicker west-southwestward motion is expected on Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 16.7N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 200239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.2, -90.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nadine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 90.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nadine was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 90.6W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 90.6W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 90.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL OSCAR MOVING VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Oscar was located near 21.3, -71.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.