Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192354 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL OSCAR MOVING VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 71.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban Provence of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 71.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast tonight into tomorrow. A sharp turn to the northeast is anticipated by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. A little more strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night and Monday. Oscar is a very small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). A private weather station on South Caicos recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on parts of the Turks and Caicos Islands and are expected to spread over portions of the Southeastern Bahamas later tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning shortly. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area of Cuba on Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the north shore of Cuba. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 23:55:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 21:29:02 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nadine, located inland over northern Guatemala, and on
Hurricane Oscar, located near the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 23:38:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 21:22:59 GMT

...NADINE BECOMES A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.3, -90.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192337 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE BECOMES A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 90.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Belize has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Belize. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nadine was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 90.0 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 21:18:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 21:29:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 20:55:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 21:22:59 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192048 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar. After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center, with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily in the northern semicircle. Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter, as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence. The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions. SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today, small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on Sunday. 3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 122 WTNT35 KNHC 192033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 89.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.4 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated areas of 12 inches, are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz and Oaxaca through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds for a few more hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 123 WTNT25 KNHC 192033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 89.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TINY OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD BRACE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 71.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 71.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast tonight into tomorrow. A sharp turn to the northeast is anticipated by Monday. Dropsonde wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. A little more strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night and Monday. Oscar is a very small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier dropsonde data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin shortly, making outside preparations dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area of Cuba by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the north shore of Cuba. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 192041 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 20(36) 2(38) X(38) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 18(28) 7(35) X(35) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 12 11(23) 3(26) 2(28) 10(38) 4(42) X(42) MAYAGUANA 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND TURK 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 9( 9) 22(31) 6(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192040 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 71.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192034 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine made landfall very near Belize City around 11 am CDT (1600 UTC) with peak winds of about 50 kt. Since that time, the storm has been moving across the northern portion of Belize and losing strength. The initial intensity is nudged down to 40 kt, with the strongest winds likely occurring over water and along the coast. Continued weakening is forecast as Nadine moves farther inland, and it will likely dissipate on Sunday. The storm has been accelerating westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/11 kt. A slightly faster westward or west-southwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates over southern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 17.2N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 192034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 17:59:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 17:59:59 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191758
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located just inland over Belize, and has just issued a
special advisory upgrading Oscar to a hurricane, located just east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 823 WTNT21 KNHC 191757 CCA TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 CORRECTED WIND GUST VALUES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 70.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191755 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, and is substantially higher than the previous one. Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been issued for those locations. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. 3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi