Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 202342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 74.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 74.5 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late Monday and cross the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). A weather station at Punta Maisi in eastern Cuba reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas Monday into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES AS SLOW-MOVING OSCAR MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 20.3, -74.6 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 550 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT61 KNHC 202150 TCUAT1 Hurricane Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 550 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...HURRICANE OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Oscar has made landfall in the Cuban province of Guantanamo near the city of Baracoa at 550 PM EDT (2150 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter observations. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the earlier reconnaissance data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). SUMMARY OF 550 PM EDT...2150 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 74.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ESE OF BARACOA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 198 FONT11 KNHC 202045 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 45 7(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 239 WTNT31 KNHC 202044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 74.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case tonight into tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba shortly. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to begin moving a bit faster to the northeast across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. After Oscar makes landfall, significant weakening is expected, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, there was a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h) from a weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). A weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba recently reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba beginning shortly and continuing through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the warning area for the southeastern Bahamas and for tonight and Monday in the warning area in Cuba, and are possible in the watch area of Cuba this tonight into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the central Bahamas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 20:47:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 21:22:48 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202046 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Oscar is very close to making landfall this afternoon along the northern coast of eastern Cuba. Since the final observations from the morning Air Force Reconnaissance mission, the hurricane's structure on satellite imagery and radar out of Guantanamo Bay has not changed appreciably, with rotating cold convective bands noted on 1 minute GOES-16 imagery, and the eyewall on radar coming and going, occasionally open on the western side. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have not changed much from when the plane was in the hurricane this morning, so the initial intensity will remain at 70 kt this advisory. Oscar has continued a west-southwestward motion, but is slowing down as it nears the Cuban coast, estimated now at 250/5 kt. The strongest mid-level ridging is now oriented to the northwest of Oscar and is helping to steer the small hurricane west-southwestward into Cuba. However, by tomorrow a digging shortwave trough on the eastern side of a broader trough across the western Atlantic should further erode the steering flow north of Oscar, with much of the track guidance showing the system executing a slow but sharp turn northward on Monday, ultimately causing the tropical cyclone to emerge back out over open waters in 24-36 h. How fast Oscar then accelerates to the northeast could be related to how vertically deep the circulation is by the early part of this week, with the GFS showing a shallow Oscar drifting slowly over the central Bahamas, while the ECMWF keeps a stronger Oscar accelerating northeastward. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, slightly favoring the ECMWF forecast solution over the GFS given its better performance with this small tropical cyclone, and lies not far off the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. The small inner core of Oscar is likely to be severely disrupted by the higher terrain of eastern Cuba after it makes landfall, and weakening after it moves ashore will likely be quick. Some of the guidance, especially the GFS, suggests that Oscar could weaken more than shown here in the latest NHC intensity forecast. Once Oscar re-emerges over the Atlantic Ocean, the forecast environment is not very favorable for reintensification, with westerly shear increasing above 30 kt in 36 h and plenty of very dry air waiting to be imported into the cyclone's core. The NHC forecast does not show any intensification after it emerges back offshore, and most of the guidance shows the small cyclone being absorbed by the much larger baroclinic trough sometime this week, though the timing varies among the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of the northern coast of eastern Cuba where Oscar is expected to make landfall shortly. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the north shore of eastern Cuba this afternoon and evening. 3. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 23.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.2N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 20.5, -74.3 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 45 7(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN NNNN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 202042 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 74.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 74.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 74.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 75.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 73.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.2N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 74.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201756
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Oscar, located just offshore of the northern coast of eastern Cuba,
and has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Nadine, located
inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 20.6, -74.1 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 201750 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 74.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning that was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was tracked by radar in Guantanamo Bay near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 74.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba later this afternoon or evening. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northern coast of eastern Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon or evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the central Bahamas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 17:50:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 15:28:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201459 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Oscar remains a compact hurricane as it nears its next landfall in the northeastern coast of Cuba. The Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance has been performing another resources permitting mission, finding that Oscar remains a small hurricane, though the last several fixes do indicate the eye is a bit larger than observed yesterday, with a 15-20 mile wide eye. This eye feature is also being occasionally observed on radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay. On satellite, Oscar still remains well organized with a small central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops below -80 C. In fact, the subjective and objective intensity estimates based on satellite are quite a bit higher than yesterday at this time. From the aircraft in-situ data, a blend of the flight level, SFMR, and dropsonde data still supports a current intensity of 70 kt this advisory. Oscar has made its turn to the west-southwest, with the current estimated motion from recon fixes at 250/7 kt. The narrow mid-level ridge that was originally north of Oscar has shifted westward while a weakness develops farther east from a mid-latitude trough, and that has resulted in the steering over the hurricane shifting more equatorward, allowing the west-southwestward motion. However, the trough's weakness will continue to grow and also migrate westward, and Oscar still seems likely to slow to a crawl after it moves inland over Cuba. Ultimately Oscar is still expected to reemerge into the southwestern Atlantic in 36 h and migrate northeastward as it becomes captured by the deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and is quite similar to the prior track forecast. Oscar appears to be holding its own today, and not much change in intensity is expected before it reaches the northeastern Cuba coast this afternoon as a hurricane. There is high terrain in eastern Cuba that is likely to severely disrupt the small inner-core of Oscar after it moves inland. Some of the global model guidance (especially the GFS) shows that Oscar could weaken more over than shown here. Assuming Oscar survives its passage over Cuba, the NHC forecast shows it emerging back offshore as a tropical storm in 36-48 h. Environmental conditions will be quite unfavorable for additional tropical development by that time, with increasing northwesterly shear and very dry mid-level air. Ultimately Oscar will finally be absorbed by a larger deep-layer baroclinic trough over the western Atlantic after 72 h, similar to the prior forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and evening. 3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Wednesday. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 14:59:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 15:28:38 GMT

...OSCAR STEADY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH COASTLINE OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 20.7, -73.9 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 201455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR STEADY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH COASTLINE OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 73.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 73.9 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is expected to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 201455 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 8(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 46 16(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 201453 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 73.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 73.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 73.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 73.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN