Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191754 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds based on aircraft data are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today before gradual weakening begins early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon, making outside preparations dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 191754 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 22(34) 5(39) X(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 10(31) X(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 9 36(45) 2(47) X(47) 4(51) 4(55) X(55) MAYAGUANA 50 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GRAND TURK 64 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 8(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 17:40:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191740 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE MOVING INLAND ACROSS BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 88.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 65 MI...140 KM SSW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located inland near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 88.5 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster westward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Nadine will likely dissipate by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL OSCAR MOVING VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Oscar was located near 21.3, -71.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

...NADINE BECOMES A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER BELIZE, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.3, -90.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT65 KNHC 191601 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE... Satellite and radar images indicate that Nadine has made landfall in Belize, near Belize City around 1100 am CDT (1600 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations. A weather station in San Pedro in the southern Yucatan Peninsula recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h). Tropical-storm-conditions are expected across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through the afternoon. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez/Delgado

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 15:01:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 15:28:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191500 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with a 35 kt initial intensity. Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker members slower and further west and stronger members being captured by the trough. Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down. After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for those locations. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Oscar was located near 21.3, -70.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191459 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 70.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Watch for Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 191459 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 34 1 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) 5(18) 5(23) X(23) GRAND TURK 34 54 1(55) X(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 14:58:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191457 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine is very close to making landfall in Belize, near Belize City. The center is currently moving across the country's barrier islands of Turneffe Atoll and landfall on the mainland will likely occur within the next hour. The sprawling tropical storm continues to slowly intensify, and a combination of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support increasing the maximum winds to 45 kt. Furthermore, radar data indicate that the structure of Nadine has improved and there are curved bands surrounding the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently in the northern portion of the storm, and they will likely reach the center soon. A Tropical Cyclone Update will be provided when the storm makes landfall. The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt, and the system is expected to continue accelerating in that direction during the next day or so. This motion should take Nadine across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico later today through Sunday. Nadine is expected to weaken after the core moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Sunday. The remnants have a high chance of reforming in the eastern Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.3N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez

...NADINE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.3, -87.9 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191457 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster westward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to make landfall near Belize City later this morning, and then move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico this afternoon through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after the storm moves inland, and it will likely dissipate by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191457 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 0SE 0SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 191457 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191314
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
915 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion on
AL94.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located just off the coast of Belize over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system
located less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands has
developed a well-defined center and continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. If the current
trends continue, advisories on a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely be issued later this morning. Interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba should closely monitor this system as tropical storm warnings
could be required later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi