000
ABNT20 KNHC 191314
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
915 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion on
AL94.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located just off the coast of Belize over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system
located less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands has
developed a well-defined center and continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. If the current
trends continue, advisories on a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely be issued later this morning. Interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba should closely monitor this system as tropical storm warnings
could be required later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 11:54:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 09:22:04 GMT

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEARING LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.3, -87.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191153 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEARING LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this morning. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.3 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Belize later this morning or early afternoon, and then continue across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon once Nadine is inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located just off the coast of Belize over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized with a small
area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles north
of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. In addition,
recently received passive microwave imagery also suggests that a
well-defined surface circulation could be developing. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form as soon
as later today as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15
mph. On this track, the system should pass north of Hispaniola
today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern
Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba on Sunday. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 08:44:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 09:22:04 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190843 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on that information, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT (0600 UTC) intermediate advisory. Satellite data and radar images from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt. Winds to tropical storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as Cancun. The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt. Nadine should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. There is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. On this track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. Weakening is forecast after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical storm strength later this afternoon. Nadine is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.4N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 87.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.4, -87.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 167 WTNT35 KNHC 190841 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 87.1W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 87.1 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Belize late this morning or around midday, and then continue across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon once Nadine is inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) north of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Cancun, Mexico, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 190841 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Nadine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

North of Hispaniola (AL94):
Although showers and thunderstorms located a couple of hundred
miles north of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic
are still showing some signs of organization, recent
satellite-derived wind data suggest that the system remains a
surface trough without a closed circulation. Some gradual
development of this system is possible this weekend while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and extreme
eastern Cuba. By early next week, further development is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nadine are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Berg

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORMS EAST OF BELIZE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nadine was located near 17.3, -86.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190537 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORMS EAST OF BELIZE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 86.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Belize City northward to the border with Mexico. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Tulum southward to the border with Belize, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has become a tropical storm. At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was centered near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.4 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible before Nadine makes landfall later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) north of the center. A WeatherFlow station at Xel-Ha Park near Tulum, Mexico, recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 05:37:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 03:22:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 02:40:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 03:22:48 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190239 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The satellite presentation of the disturbance has improved this evening. Curved bands of deep convection have developed closer to the estimated center position, although it is unclear from recent passive microwave imagery whether a well-defined surface center exists yet. The strongest winds are occurring within the convective bands to the north of the center, where NOAA buoy 42056 has reported sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts to tropical storm force. Based on these observations and available satellite data, the system will remain a 30-kt potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Data from an ASCAT-C overpass will arrive within the next couple of hours, which should provide some clarity about the current intensity of the system and whether it has a well-defined center. The disturbance appears to be moving westward at about 7 kt to the south of a high pressure ridge over the eastern United States. The latest track guidance agrees that the system should continue on a westward heading through Saturday night and cross the coast of Belize between 12-24 h from now. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Despite limited time remaining over water, warm SSTs and relatively low shear in a moist environment should allow the system to consolidate and strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves ashore. The strongest winds are forecast to occur within the northern semicircle, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Belize City northward to Tulum, Mexico. Weakening is expected once the system moves inland, and it is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible as the system moves westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE ON SATURDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Fifteen was located near 17.6, -86.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE ON SATURDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 86.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 86.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 190237 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 10 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER REINHART