Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190236 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 86.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 86.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 85.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182345
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized
since yesterday with a trough of low pressure located more than 100
miles north of Puerto Rico. Some gradual development is possible
this weekend while it moves generally westward at around 15 mph,
passing near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. By early next
week, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Fifteen was located near 17.5, -85.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 85.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 85.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday while the system approaches the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). NOAA buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Basin recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust of 38 mph (61 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2024 23:44:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2024 21:22:44 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 696 WTNT45 KNHC 182037 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before dissipating on Sunday. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024 576 FONT15 KNHC 182036 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Fifteen was located near 17.5, -85.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 230 WTNT35 KNHC 182036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward to the border with Mexico. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the border with Belize northward to Tulum. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City to Tulum A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to turn westward tonight before reaching land tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast, and it could become a tropical cyclone before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024 231 WTNT25 KNHC 182036 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 85.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2024 20:45:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2024 21:22:44 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low
pressure continues to produce showers and thunderstorms extending a
couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur
while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20
mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today,
then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend.
Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better
organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association
with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better
defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some additional development over the next day
or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form
before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday.
Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or
warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94):
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern Leeward
Islands northward for a couple hundred miles over the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be
slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward
at around 20 mph, passing near or just north of the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or two, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Satellite images show a broad area of low pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better defined, and nearby buoy
observations indicate surface pressures are falling. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development over the next couple of days. A short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

784
ABNT20 KNHC 171728
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next
couple of days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the
chances of development by late in the weekend. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Gradual development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days before it
moves inland over Central America. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hadi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next few
days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward
around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on
Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of
development by late in the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days before it moves
inland over Central America. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and
southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hadi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for slow development as the disturbance moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater
Antilles over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days if the system
stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico
late this week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. This system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for gradual development late this week and into the
weekend. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater
Antilles over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days if the system
stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico
late this week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161728
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated
with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less
defined since yesterday. The trough of low pressure continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky