Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 ...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 49.4W ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast the next few days with Leslie forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 112032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 608 WTNT23 KNHC 112032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 49.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 49.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.5N 42.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 36.0N 36.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.2N 30.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.7N 25.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N 21.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with
an area of low pressure passing through the western portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier satellite data and recent surface
observations indicate that the system has winds up to about 40
mph, with higher gusts, but the circulation is elongated. Some
additional development is possible, and a short-lived tropical storm
could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph away from the Cabo Verde Islands. On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, winds to tropical storm force and areas of heavy rain
are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 14:49:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 15:24:14 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 111448 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is exposed about 70 n mi outside of the northern edge of the convective area, which has been shrinking and weakening over the past several hours. As a result, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both down to 45 kt. A pair of recently arriving ASCAT passes still show an area of 40-44 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, which agrees well with the subjective Dvorak estimates and the ASCAT data. Leslie is likely currently experiencing more than 30 kt of north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The cyclone will be moving toward an upper-level ridge axis over the next 12 to 24 h, which will cause the deep-layer shear to decrease. However, Leslie will reach sea-surface temperatures colder than 26C in about 24 h, and it is forecast to remain in a relatively dry low- to mid-level troposphere. Some slight additional weakening is forecast today, followed by little change in strength for the next couple of days. The intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity model guidance envelope. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery agree that the cyclone will lose its convection by 48 h, but phase-space diagrams suggest that Leslie could potentially become extratropical before that time, by 36 h. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie becoming post-tropical over the weekend, in agreement with the aforementioned guidance. Leslie is still expected to dissipate by day 4, as shown by the global models. Leslie has been moving toward the north-northeast, or 015/9 kt, as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. A strong frontal trough will approach Leslie from the west tonight into Saturday, causing Leslie to accelerate toward the northeast. Leslie's interaction with this frontal system could cause the cyclone to lose its tropical characteristics by Saturday night. On Sunday, the cyclone is expected to turn more towards the east within the mid-latitude westerly flow. No significant changes were made to the first 48 h of the official track forecast, with a slight southward adjustment at the 72 h point. The NHC track forecast is very near the TVCA consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 26.4N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 31.7N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 34.6N 39.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 13/1200Z 36.2N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 14/0000Z 36.8N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/1200Z 36.4N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 111447 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...LESLIE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 26.4, -50.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 111447 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 ...LESLIE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 50.5W ABOUT 1585 MI...2545 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 50.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue today, and Leslie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 111447 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 50.5W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 50.5W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.7N 45.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 39.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.2N 34.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.8N 29.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.4N 24.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 50.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111308
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
910 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance near
the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Updated: Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands in association with an area of low pressure
centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago.
However, the satellite data showed that the circulation is
elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Some additional development is possible, and
a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde
Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, winds to tropical storm force and areas of heavy rain
are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently displaced to the east of the low-level center of an area
of low pressure located over the southwestern portion of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Some additional development is possible, and a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form while
the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today.
On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time.
Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty
winds are likely today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 08:44:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 09:23:07 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB. The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days. Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast track. Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday, if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery. There is still the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical characteristics in 48-72 h as well. For now, the NHC intensity forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend and dissipating early next week. Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has turned northward at 9 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast and east-northeast over the weekend. The latest track forecast is essentially the same as the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.5N 50.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 110838 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 25.5, -50.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 110838 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 ...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 50.8W ABOUT 1635 MI...2630 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn towards northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue and Leslie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110837 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 50.8W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 50.8W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110536
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located over the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some additional development is possible and a short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm could form while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo
Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. By Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 02:33:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 03:22:52 GMT