...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...300 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 3:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 28.3, -80.9 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 100658 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 300 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...300 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape Canaveral. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Melbourne International Airport. The next position update will be at 0400 AM EDT (0800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 80.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100547
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over central Florida.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force low pressure
system located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions are no longer conducive for
further development while the system moves east-northeastward,
passing to the south of Bermuda today. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
tropical wave located over the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi

Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100546 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES REMAIN IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 81.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located inland near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 81.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida during the next few hours, and emerge off the east coast of Florida around sunrise. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida this morning. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape Canaveral. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (121 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h was recently reported at Melbourne International Airport. A sustained wind of 33 mph (53 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...4-7 ft Charlotte Harbor...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula today. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area through midday today. Tropical storm conditions in the tropical storm warning area in Florida and will spread to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this morning over parts of central and eastern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast today and along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Reinhart/Mahoney/Sardi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 05:46:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 03:28:44 GMT

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 1:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 28.0, -81.6 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 100457 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a gust of 79 mph (127 km/h) was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport station in St. Petersburg. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando International Airport. A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph (108 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape Canaveral. The next position update will be at 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC) with the intermediate advisory. SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 81.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Sardi/Mahoney/Cangialosi

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 04:28:19 GMT

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND... ...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 12:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 27.8, -81.8 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 754 WTNT64 KNHC 100357 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND... ...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 93 mph (150 km/h) was recently reported at the Tampa International Airport and at a Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Dundee. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando Executive Airport. A sustained wind of 44 mph (69 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station near Melbourne. The next position update will be at 100 AM EDT (0500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 81.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 03:19:26 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:51:10 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:51:10 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:50:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:50:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100249 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90 kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in an hour at St. Petersburg. Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or 060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days. The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic, dissipating after 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday morning. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100248 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON BRINGING DEVASTATING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 82.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of Anclote River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located inland near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida overnight. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) was recently reported at a UF Sentinel/WeatherFlow station in Venice. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Tampa International Airport. A gust of 94 mph (152 km/h) was recently reported at a Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Bartow. A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at Winter Haven Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area and are spreading east-northeastward across the Florida peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and have already reached the east coast of Florida. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through early Thursday morning over parts of central and eastern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 100248 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 60 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) JACKSONVILLE 34 31 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) COCOA BEACH FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) PATRICK AFB 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 67 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MIAMI FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 29 6(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 120 WTNT24 KNHC 100247 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 82.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 110SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 160SE 130SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100244 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Since the previous advisory, a small eye feature has started appearing on geostationary infrared imagery with Leslie, surrounded by a ring of very cold (below -70 C) cloud top temperatures. This structure is also supported by an earlier SAR-RCM2 pass that showed a tight inner core with a radius of maximum wind that had contracted from yesterday. 00 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T5.0/90-kt and T5.5/102-kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates were somewhat lower, between 79-86 kt, and blending the data results in a 90 kt intensity this cycle. A Saildrone (SD-1036) appears to be near the path of Leslie, and is currently reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds that are quickly increasing about 50 n mi northwest of the center. As noted previously, another saildrone (SD-1040) indicated that sea-surface temperatures near Leslie are warmer than expected, near 29 C. At the same time, the hurricane is in a very narrow region of low vertical wind shear that should persist for another 6-12 h. While the interpolated intensity guidance is a bit lower, the raw model output of all four of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, HWRF) show Leslie briefly becoming a major hurricane in 12 h. Because the raw model output from these intensity aids has been outperforming the interpolated guidance over the past day, the NHC intensity forecast will now show a 100 kt peak tomorrow morning. However, this peak is likely to be short-lived, as strong upper-level northerly flow, via outflow from Milton and Invest 93L, will soon overtake the hurricane, likely leading to rapid weakening. Those same hurricane-regional models show Leslie weakening below hurricane intensity in 36 h, and that rapid weakening continues to be reflected in the latest intensity forecast. While sheared puffs of deep convection may continue for a subsequent day or two, eventually Leslie is likely to lose the necessary convective organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie becoming post-tropical by the end of the weekend, though this could occur sooner than forecast given the proximity of very dry environmental air and high shear affecting the system. Leslie continues to move northwestward, estimated at 315/7 kt this evening. The track forecast is more straightforward, with Leslie rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge to its east, resulting in a gradual turn northward and then northeastward over the forecast period. With that said, there has been a notable westward and poleward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast was moved in that direction, but not as far as the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 22.6N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:43:09 GMT


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