5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:35:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:22:54 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220833 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Oscar is at best barely a tropical storm at this time. While convection associated with the system has increased since the last advisory, most of it is occurring in clusters well away from the center in the eastern semicircle, and there is only minimal convection near the center. Also, while 850 mb flight-level winds were as high as 45-50 kt during an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, dropsonde and SFMR data suggests those winds were having trouble mixing down to the surface. The system will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm pending the next recon flight and whether convection will increase further during the upcoming diurnal maximum. The global models are in good agreement that a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic will cause baroclinic cyclogenesis near or north of Oscar during the next 24-48 h. The UKMET shows Oscar become the main focus for the development and becoming a large extratropical low, while the GFS develops a second low to the north of Oscar with Oscar becoming absorbed into the new system. The ECMWF and Canadian models forecast a blend of these scenarios, with the baroclinic low forming close to Oscar. Given Oscar's organization and current trends in satellite imagery, the intensity forecast leans towards the GFS solution, with Oscar becoming a post-tropical low in less than 24 h and then being absorbed by the new low in 36-48 h. The initial motion is now 030/10 kt. Interaction with the above mentioned trough should steer Oscar generally northeastward with an increase in forward speed until it is absorbed by the new baroclinic low. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Key Messages: 1. Through Tuesday, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 22.7N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 220832 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 the center of Oscar was located near 22.7, -74.8 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 74.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the Bahamas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, Oscar is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220831 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located near the central and southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 05:32:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 03:22:58 GMT

...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 the center of Oscar was located near 22.3, -75.1 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220531 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 75.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (14 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas later today. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Through today, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 866 WTNT21 KNHC 220300 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 02:41:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track prediction remains similar to the previous one. Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 220240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAYAGUANA 34 11 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 21.8, -75.4 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 75.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART NNNN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212346
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located near the north coast of eastern Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 21.4, -75.7 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 212345 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 75.7W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 75.7 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected within the warning area in eastern Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart