Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 989 WTNT32 KNHC 022031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 ...PATTY NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES... . ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 30.1W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 30.1 West. The storm is moving toward the southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low late Sunday or Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM GMT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 988 WTNT22 KNHC 022031 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.1W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 480SE 660SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.1W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 31.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.5N 27.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.3N 23.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 19.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.5N 11.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.7N 9.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 30.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 17:40:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 600 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021738 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 600 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 ...PATTY NEARING THE AZORES... . ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THERE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 31.1W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 31.1 West. The storm is moving toward the southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster eastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by Sunday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight and Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
generally northward to northwestward over the central and western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Interests in the
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
gusty winds. Slow development of this system is possible during the
day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By
early next week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 14:37:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021436 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 Patty has strengthened over the past several hours. Satellite images continue to show the system maintaining a tight core with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding the center. On a larger scale, however, the storm has a considerable amount of cool and dry air wrapping around the core and it is co-located with an upper-level low. These mixed tropical and extratropical characteristics are supportive of maintaining Patty's subtropical status. ASCAT data from a few hours ago showed peak winds near 50 kt in the southwestern quadrant, and given potential undersampling due to the instrument's resolution, the initial wind speed is increased to 55 kt. The wind radii have also been adjusted based on the ASCAT data. Patty is likely near its peak intensity as it currently lies in a region of instability beneath its parent upper-level low and in relatively low vertical wind shear. However, the models show the upper-level feature weakening, resulting in more stable conditions and increasing westerly vertical wind shear. These environmental factors should cause steady weakening and lead to post-tropical transition by Sunday night. The low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is above the previous in the short term due to the higher initial intensity. The subtropical storm is accelerating southeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is 130/11 kt. A faster eastward motion is expected to begin soon, taking the storm near or just south of the Azores tonight and Sunday. An east-northeastward motion is expected after that toward western Europe. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight and Sunday. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 39.0N 32.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 38.2N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 37.8N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 37.8N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 38.7N 17.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 40.0N 13.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 41.6N 10.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 021435 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PONTA DELGADA 34 2 54(56) 12(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONTA DELGADA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021434 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 ...PATTY STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 32.4W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 32.4 West. The storm is moving toward the southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster eastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by Sunday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores tonight and Sunday. For more information, see products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 021434 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 32.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 480SE 600SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 32.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.2N 29.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.8N 25.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.8N 21.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.7N 17.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N 13.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.6N 10.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 32.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...PATTY NEARING THE AZORES... . ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THERE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... As of 6:00 PM GMT Sat Nov 2 the center of Patty was located near 38.2, -31.1 with movement SE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1205 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT62 KNHC 021205 TCUAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 1205 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for all the islands of the Azores. The next advisory package will be issued at 1500 UTC. $$ Forecaster Kelly

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty
winds extending from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward
for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. By early next week, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next few days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 09:08:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 09:23:07 GMT

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020856 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring over the northern Atlantic has gradually acquired subtropical characteristics during the past 12-24 h. The low has become detached from fronts and has a shallow warm-core structure, though it remains within a cooler airmass behind a cold front over the eastern Atlantic. Despite SSTs around 21 deg C, instability aloft has allowed the system to sustain some moderate convection that wraps most of the way around its center in geostationary and passive microwave images. Since the wind field is asymmetric and the system remains co-located with an upper-level low, it seems best classified as a subtropical cyclone, which is consistent with ST2.5 classifications from TAFB. Thus, the NHC is initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty. Earlier partial scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds in the southern semicircle, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt since it does not appear the strongest winds were sampled by the instrument. Patty is moving east-southeastward at 105/7 kt. The track guidance is in very good agreement that Patty will move faster toward the east-southeast through early Sunday, bringing the center near or over portions of the Azores. Then, a turn toward the east and east-northeast is expected through early next week as Patty is steered by an upper-level trough. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope, generally between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Little change in strength is expected today, and Patty is forecast to be a fairly short-lived subtropical cyclone. This is because westerly shear is forecast to increase over the system during the next couple of days, which will likely make it difficult for the system to sustain convection near and around its center. Due to its increasing forward speed, the strongest winds of Patty should generally remain over the southern portion of the circulation during its lifetime. Given the non-tropical origins of this system, the NHC intensity forecast leans more heavily on the GFS and ECMWF global models, which lie on the lower end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 39.9N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 38.2N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 38.0N 23.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0600Z 38.7N 19.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 39.8N 15.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 41.3N 11.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020855 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 46 16(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 12(12) 28(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sat Nov 2 the center of Patty was located near 39.9, -34.4 with movement ESE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020854 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 34.4W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 34.4 West. The storm is moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster east-southeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little intensity change is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast through early next week. Patty could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Azores this weekend. See products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for more information. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020854 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 34.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 600SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 34.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 34.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 27.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 23.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 19.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.8N 15.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.3N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020539
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the
central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land
areas of the western Caribbean during the next few days, including
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure extending from near Puerto Rico eastward
over the adjacent waters of the Atlantic is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms near and over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Slow development is possible
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. Then, this system is
expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands
westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the
southeastern Bahamas. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
near a low pressure system centered a few hundred miles
west-northwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions could allow
for additional development today and tonight, and the system could
become a short-lived subtropical or tropical storm while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become unfavorable for further development by late this weekend.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
For more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Reinhart