...SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 4:00 AM EST Mon Nov 4 the center of Eighteen was located near 14.2, -76.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 538 WTNT33 KNHC 040848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 76.9W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a more northwestward motion is expected today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late today and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days ...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040848 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) 1(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 2(41) 1(42) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) 2(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 3(43) X(43) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) X(44) 1(45) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 27(77) X(77) 1(78) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) 1(43) X(43) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 8(55) X(55) 1(56) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 27(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 23(23) 24(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) MONTEGO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 040848 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...PATTY QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Nov 4 the center of Patty was located near 38.2, -18.0 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040847 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 ...PATTY QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 18.0W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 18.0 West. Patty is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Patty can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, Patty or its remnants are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across portions of Portugal and western Spain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 18.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 240SE 300SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 18.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 19.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 18.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040847 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...115NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 05:46:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 03:28:58 GMT

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... As of 1:00 AM EST Mon Nov 4 the center of Eighteen was located near 14.0, -76.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 100 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 459 WTNT33 KNHC 040544 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a more northwestward motion is expected today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late today and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be near hurricane intensity as it passes near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days ...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040511
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean east of
the Azores Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of
the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward
Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is
possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the
southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 588 WTNT43 KNHC 040258 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 The convective structure of the system in the south-central Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized this evening. Current shower and thunderstorm activity is clustered in two regions to the south and northeast of the estimated center. The center itself remains quite broad and lacks distinct banding features, as seen on an earlier GMI microwave pass at 2219 UTC. Given the lack of improvement from this afternoon, the system remains a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC), with an initial intensity at 30 kt. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is in route to sample the system tonight, and we should soon also receive an ASCAT-B scatterometer pass to provide more information on its structure and intensity. My best guess is that the system continues to move slowly northward this evening, with a current motion a fairly uncertain 360/5 kt. Over the next couple of days, a large mid-level ridge currently parked north of the system off the southeastern U.S. coast should shift a little eastward and build farther southeastward towards Hispaniola. The result of this synoptic pattern should cause PTC18 to turn northwestward and gradually accelerate as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean. This motion should bring the system near Jamaica by Monday evening and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. This northwestward track should continue, likely bringing the system over Cuba and ultimately into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 72 h. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge, with notable ECMWF ensemble cross-track spread in the southwest-to-northeast direction over the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this track spread is related to how fast a mid-latitude cutoff low over the four corners region of the U.S. ejects out into the central Plains. This feature will play a role in how much the mid-level ridging ahead of the system becomes eroded when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is a little slower compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is also a little bit slower this advisory, while nudged just a hair to the west of the prior forecast at the end of period. However, forecast confidence on the track in the 96-h and 120-h time-frame is lower than usual. The intensity forecast is also uncertain, because how much the system is able to intensify will be determined by its evolving structure over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions in the northwestern Caribbean are forecast to be quite favorable, with SHIPS guidance indicating vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or lower while traversing very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures for the next 48-60 h. Such an environment could favor rapid intensification, as some of the regional-hurricane model guidance aids were suggesting earlier today. However, this evolution depends on when or if the system is able to develop an inner-core, and the current poor structure argues against substantial development in the short-term. Assuming the system does ultimately develop a better aligned vortex, more significant intensification is forecast in the 24-60 h time frame, and the NHC intensity forecast still shows the system becoming a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. After PTC18 crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast environment becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures, though this environment is quite dependent on the forecast track. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the prior one, splitting the difference between the more aggressive hurricane-regional models, and more subdued global model and statistical-dynamical aids. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba. 2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas on Monday. 3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late portions of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:59:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 03:28:58 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040255 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) 1(23) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 1(31) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) 2(19) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 5(42) 1(43) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 51(65) 1(66) X(66) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 21(40) 1(41) X(41) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) 1(18) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 6(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... As of 10:00 PM EST Sun Nov 3 the center of Eighteen was located near 13.3, -76.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040254 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 76.9W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as additional watches or warnings could be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a turn more northwestward is forecast on Monday and expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday with additional strengthening forecast after that time. The system could be near hurricane intensity as it passes near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040253 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 76.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 76.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...115NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:36:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 Patty has continued producing deep convection since the time of the previous advisory, although the convective structure has recently degraded slightly on the latest infrared images. The infrared satellite images and an 03/2138 UTC ASCAT pass depict a more compact cyclone with a confined radius of maximum winds than earlier in the system's life. Patty is also no longer co-located with the upper-level low that was earlier responsible for its hybrid characteristics. Based on these observations, Patty has made the transition into a tropical storm. The earlier ASCAT pass showed tropical storm force winds as high as 39 kt in the southern semicircle. The initial intensity is therefore held at 40 kt. The initial motion of the tropical storm is estimated to be eastward, or 085/17 kt. Patty is expected to turn east-northeastward over the next day, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, closer to the latest track consensus guidance. All guidance insists Patty will weaken significantly during the next day or two as the cyclone encounters progressively colder sea-surface temperatures, stronger vertical wind shear and drier air. Although the timing of when Patty is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical has been pushed back slightly, confidence is fairly high that the system will be falling apart and weakening in a day or two. The various global models agree that Patty should open up into a trough and dissipate by hour 48, around the time that the circulation reaches the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Due to orographic lifting, some rainfall impacts appear possible for portions of Portugal and Spain from Patty's remnants. Key messages: 1. Between late Monday and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 37.7N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen