5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 23:45:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 21:23:04 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 20:49:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212042 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Although the circulation of Oscar is rather broad, visible satellite images show that the center is nearing the northern coast of eastern Cuba. Deep convection associated with the system has diminished during the day, at least partially due to a diurnal fluctuation. The intensity is kept, perhaps generously, at 35 kt for this advisory. Surface synoptic observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate that the strongest winds are over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and no tropical-storm-force wind radii are shown to the northwest or southwest of the center for this advisory. Oscar been turning fairly sharply to the right while the system executes a hairpin turn over eastern Cuba. The current motion estimate is around 330/6 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to turn northward and northeastward with some increase in forward speed while it moves on the southeastern and eastern side of a mid-level trough. Since the system has moved a little farther west than previously estimated, the overall official track forecast has been shifted slightly west of the previous one. This is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The tropical cyclone should move back over water soon, so some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two. However, Oscar will be moving into an area of strong upper-level winds over the next couple of days which should impart significant westerly shear over the system. Also, the cyclone is expected to remain in a relatively dry air mass to the north of the Greater Antilles. Thus, only slight restrengthening seems possible. The official intensity forecast is above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. In 2 to 3 days, the global models show the system being absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure system to the west of Bermuda. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Over the last 24 hours, a rainfall total of nearly 15 inches was reported at Punta de Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into this evening across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 21.0N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 212040 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 34 2 30(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 21.0, -76.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 878 WTNT31 KNHC 212039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 76.1W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 76.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba by this evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in eastern Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside this evening and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 044 WTNT21 KNHC 212039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 75.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 76.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located over eastern Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 17:54:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 15:22:50 GMT

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.6, -75.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211753 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 75.8 West. Oscar is now moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north is expected this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba this afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An ASOS weather station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 322 WTNT41 KNHC 211445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this may be generous. The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system should then accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than 10 inches of rain have fallen in spots. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 167 FONT11 KNHC 211444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.3, -75.4 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 753 WTNT31 KNHC 211444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 75.4W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba later today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 327 WTNT21 KNHC 211443 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 75.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 75.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:46:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 15:22:50 GMT

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.2, -75.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 75.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening could occur while Oscar moves across the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 11:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 09:22:47 GMT