...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 28.1, -67.0 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 67.0W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 160843 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 16(40) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 3(45) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) X(47) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 15 74(89) 8(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 1 57(58) 26(84) 2(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) BERMUDA 64 X 24(24) 38(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160843 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 230SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 210SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 180SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 67.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 05:41:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 03:23:02 GMT

...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 27.6, -67.5 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160541 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 67.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 67.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength late today. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 02:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 03:23:02 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Ernesto has been strengthening this evening. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt. This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant. Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Around that time, the trough is expected to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents. As a result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or north-northeast is forecast over the weekend. Another trough is expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of Atlantic Canada early next week. The NHC track forecast is a touch to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence, a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend. However, baroclinic influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to 72-hour time frame. Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is moving toward Bermuda, and it is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda from Friday afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda overnight and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 160234 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 36(46) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 15(50) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 5(40) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) X(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 50(53) 40(93) 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BERMUDA 50 X 8( 8) 61(69) 10(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) 40(41) 12(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 27.1, -68.1 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 68.1W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 68.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 190SE 180SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 68.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 23:31:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 21:23:08 GMT

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 26.6, -68.4 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 152330 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 68.4W ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion late Friday and Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 20:54:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 21:23:08 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 274 WTNT45 KNHC 152047 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 The inner core of Ernesto continues to be plagued by dry air intrusion. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Ernesto has yet to close off an eyewall. While the minimum central sea level pressure has fallen to an estimated 972 mb based on dropsonde data, the maximum flight-level winds are still at 86 kt, similar to the earlier mission. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory cycle. Ernesto has turned northward, with an estimated motion of 360/11 kt. The storm is currently being steered by the flow between the subtropical ridge centered over the north Atlantic Ocean and a mid-latitude trough just off the eastern seaboard of North America. This hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northeastward and slow down over the next day or so as the trough lifts out to the northeast. A subsequent trough is forecast to approach the New England coast on Sunday and accelerate Ernesto off to the northeast. The official track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous prediction and lies between the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday and near or east of Atlantic Canada on Monday. Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear should allow Ernesto to gradually intensify over the next 12 hours or so. Still, the mid-level atmospheric moisture is expected to be marginal and the system could continue to experience dry air intrusions. Global models suggest that while the vertical wind shear could begin to increase within a day, Ernesto may be positioned in a region relative to the departing trough where it could capitalize on enhanced outflow and continue to strength. By the weekend, atmospheric conditions should become less favorable and gradually weaken the hurricane. Still, Ernesto is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda. Little changes have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the top of the model guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda this evening and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 26.1N 68.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde