Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 164 FONT15 KNHC 142042 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 58(83) 6(89) X(89) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 7(61) X(61) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 5(38) X(38) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 21.7, -68.3 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 68.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday. A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 64.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.4N 58.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 68.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 240 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

334
ABNT20 KNHC 141752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ernesto, located a couple of hundred miles
northwest of Puerto Rico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 17:50:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 15:23:10 GMT

...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 21.1, -68.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 68.0W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A hurricane watch may be required for the island later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde data is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds will continue across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through rest of today. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1108 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 141505 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 200SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 67.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 14:58:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 15:23:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall. In addition, Tail Doppler radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an elevation of 500 meters. Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the storm is passing Bermuda. By early next week, a second trough moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters south of Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion. After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope. The NHC forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very close to the dynamical hurricane models. Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry air during the next several days. That said, the intensity guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques through today. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required later today. 4. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.5N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

...ERNESTO BECOMES A HURRICANE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS HEAVY RAINS PERSIST... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 20.5, -67.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141454 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A HURRICANE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS HEAVY RAINS PERSIST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 67.6W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A hurricane watch may be required for the island later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 67.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the day. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 141454 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 64(72) 11(83) 1(84) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 10(48) 1(49) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 11:53:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 09:23:24 GMT

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 19.8, -67.2 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141152 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 67.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg