5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 08:59:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 09:23:24 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140853 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 Ernesto continues to gradually become better organized on satellite imagery and WSR 88-D radar data. Very intense convection has developed near the center of the storm as well as in a strong band to the south across Puerto Rico. Earlier Culebra reported sustained winds of 59 kt and that was the basis for the 60 kt estimate at 6Z. While it is possible Ernesto is already a hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade, so 60 kt remains the initial intensity. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the system later this morning. The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. Ernesto is expected to turn north-northwestward later today and then move to the north or north-northeast for the next several days while it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge and interacts with a mid-latitude trough. There are no notable changes to the NHC track forecast, with Ernesto forecast to stay offshore of the CONUS and make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday. Radar data still suggests that Ernesto isn't fully vertically aligned, with multiple attempts at eye formation failing, probably due to dry air intrusions. The large-scale conditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening as the shear remains fairly low and any residual dry air gradually mixes out of the core. The bulk of the intensity guidance still shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic in a couple of days, and the global models also depict a large and powerful hurricane. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains near the model consensus. It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells toward the land area across the western Atlantic. Even if Ernesto stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later this week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next several hours. 2. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.5N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 140851 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 63(65) 19(84) 2(86) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) 2(53) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 2(32) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM ERNESTO... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 19.5, -66.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140851 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through the morning hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A metar station at the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station (TJNR) recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located about 65 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 356 WTNT25 KNHC 140850 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 145SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 66.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 66.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 05:50:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT

...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of Ernesto was located near 19.0, -66.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 016 WTNT35 KNHC 140549 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 66.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...25 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through the early morning. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located by San Juan radar near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 66.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (25 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station (XCUL) on Culebra recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust of 86 mph (139 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located about 70 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140535
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 03:01:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 02:49:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 02:49:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 733 WTNT45 KNHC 140247 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening. The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward, although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Friday night into Saturday. The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models (particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico tonight through Wednesday. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 945 FONT15 KNHC 140246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 40(77) 5(82) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) 4(48) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT JOHN 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAINT CROIX 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.8, -65.3 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 566 WTNT35 KNHC 140245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 358 WTNT25 KNHC 140245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located near the Virgin Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 23:51:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.4, -64.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.