000
ABNT20 KNHC 121124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 08:59:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 09:22:50 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120837 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not well organized. However, these observations also suggest the possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt. The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning northwestward and northward into the break. While the model guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 120837 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 2(29) X(29) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 4(31) X(31) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 19(41) 1(42) X(42) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 16(44) 1(45) X(45) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 11(38) 1(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) SABA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Five was located near 14.4, -52.5 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches or warnings could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning late tonight or Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120836 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 52.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 52.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 52.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 05:37:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:22:58 GMT

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Five was located near 14.3, -51.4 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120532 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 51.4W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 51.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 02:49:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120243 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a well-defined circulation has not yet formed. Given the lack of increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The disturbance is expected to pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better assess the status of the system. Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more or less maintain the current heading during that period. In the 2 to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S. east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of the Greater Antilles. Later in the forecast period a turn toward the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated. The NHC forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model consensus. It should again be noted that forecast tracks for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position. The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial development and intensification. The shear is likely to weaken soon and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more conducive over the next few days. The official forecast calls for intensification in general agreement with the intensity model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.1N 50.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 120241 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) 1(36) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 6(38) X(38) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) 1(27) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 3(51) X(51) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 34(53) 2(55) X(55) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 24(48) 2(50) X(50) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 9(43) 1(44) X(44) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 7(47) 1(48) X(48) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 4(46) 1(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 11 the center of Five was located near 14.1, -50.1 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 50.1W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Barthelemy. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120240 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 50.1W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 50.1W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 50.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112336
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 23:35:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 21:23:01 GMT

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 11 the center of Five was located near 13.9, -49.1 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.