The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast
to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach
the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Debby, located inland over North Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

524
ABNT20 KNHC 082328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Depression Debby, located inland over North Carolina.
Future advisories on Debby will be issued by the National Weather
Service Weather Prediction Center.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia, with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression. Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North Carolina coast for a few more hours. The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 082031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) DOVER DE 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 24 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) RICHMOND VA 34 10 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DANVILLE VA 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) RALEIGH NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 35.1, -80.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby was located inland near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northward or north-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but Debby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force could occur for a few more hours along portions of the North Carolina coast. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in the Cape Fear, Neuse, and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. The threat for tornadoes will shift northward into parts of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania on Friday. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php . $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 082031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z...INLAND AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 80.2W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 80.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DEBBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DEBBY CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 17:55:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:22:55 GMT

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.8, -80.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 80.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near inland latitude 34.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north across central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of coastal North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area during the few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland near the border of North Carolina
and South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few
days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move
generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles
by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:43:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081442 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy rainfall. Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models. Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream, which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic. Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about 24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina and portions of North Carolina. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi