...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 30.6, -65.6 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 610 WTNT35 KNHC 162043 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 65.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 65.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown tomorrow. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions already beginning on the island. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are also beginning to affect the east coast of the United States and will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 255 WTNT25 KNHC 162043 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 230SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 65NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 70SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 75SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 160SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 65.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 30.0, -66.1 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161744 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 66.1W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h), with a gust up to 74 mph (119 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 17:44:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 15:23:01 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161622 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Corrected direction of motion in second paragraph Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the center. Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 030/12 kt. The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor changes compared to the previous cycle. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25 kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to 24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28 C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing the system becoming extratropical at 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 29.5, -66.4 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 972 WTNT35 KNHC 161442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 66.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located to the northeast of Ernesto recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (73 km/h), with a gust up to 57 mph (93 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 973 FONT15 KNHC 161442 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 2(40) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 16(53) X(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 80 19(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 15 73(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) BERMUDA 64 2 60(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 14:45:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 15:23:01 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161444 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the center. Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 330/12 kt. The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor changes compared to the previous cycle. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25 kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to 24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28 C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing the system becoming extratropical at 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161440 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 230SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 45SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 75SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 140SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 160SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 66.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 28.9, -66.5 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161155 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 66.5W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 66.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 11:55:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 09:23:01 GMT

266
ABNT20 KNHC 161141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 08:48:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 09:23:01 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160844 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight. The cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall erosion in the western semicircle. Still, the convective banding in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto hasn't lost much strength. The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates, pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission this morning. The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today. However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast values being a lot lower than 6 h ago. Given current trends, the NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is still on the high side of the guidance. It is worth noting that despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is generally larger than the previous forecast, so the life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little change was made at longer range. Ernesto continues moving north-northeastward at about 11 kt, steered by the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to persist for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Saturday. The trough is forecast is lift out over the weekend, causing Ernesto to slow down and turn a bit to the north or north-northeast. Another trough is expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that feature should cause Ernesto to accelerate to the northeast near or east of Newfoundland early next week. The NHC track forecast continues to the trend of the previous one, nudged a touch to the east and a little slower through its passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest aids. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 28.1N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake