Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Surface observations indicate that Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda around 430 AM AST (0830 UTC). At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.8 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). The National Museum on Bermuda recently reported a central pressure of 972 mb (28.71 mb). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 170855 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 24(55) X(55) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 1(62) X(62) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170855 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 285SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 130SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 05:55:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 03:24:10 GMT

...ERNESTO LASHING BERMUDA WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 32.0, -65.1 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170555 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO LASHING BERMUDA WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 65.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda within a few hours and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The L. F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170546
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located near Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 02:35:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 03:24:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170232 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto is very near Bermuda. The island has been in the northern rainbands since this afternoon, and the eyewall is closing in on the island as seen in Bermuda's Doppler radar images. So far, tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane force have been observed on Bermuda, and the strongest winds will likely occur there during the next several hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ernesto this evening and found that the minimum pressure has been steady around 969 mb. A blend of the latest flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of about 80 kt. Recent microwave images indicate that the vortex is tilted to the east-northeast with height due to about 20 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The already tilted vortex coupled with continued moderate to strong shear and possible intrusions of dry air should cause some weakening during the next day or so. However, the shear is expected to lessen during the 24- to 60-h time period, and since Ernesto will still be over the Gulf Stream Current then, the weakening trend should pause. In fact, Ernesto is forecast to strengthen some during that time, following the hurricane regional models and consensus aids. On Monday, the cyclone is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and track over sharply cooler waters while moving into a strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast at that point, and Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition shortly after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Ernesto is still moving northeastward at 11 kt, however, the hurricane is expected to slow down soon as the trough off Atlantic Canada continues to lift out. The expected slower motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through Saturday night on Bermuda. After the hurricane pulls away from Bermuda, another trough is forecast to push off the U.S. east coast. This feature should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Residents there should listen to orders from local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.4N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 170232 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) X(50) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 16(52) X(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 1(42) X(42) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 31.4, -65.2 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 65.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (120 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force early Saturday. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island into Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170231 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 185SE 180SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 65.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 23:48:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 21:23:03 GMT

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING BEGINNING OVER BERMUDA... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 31.0, -65.2 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162348 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING BEGINNING OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 65.2W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown beginning early Saturday. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (81 km/h). A Saildrone (SD-1068) recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 94 mph (152 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force early Saturday. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island into Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located near Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 20:51:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 21:23:03 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 562 WTNT45 KNHC 162045 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was 107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon. Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet. Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon, estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning. Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size. Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening, though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland Canada. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda that is beginning currently and expected to continue through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be completed as tropical-storm-force winds are already being observed on the island. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 768 FONT15 KNHC 162043 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 1(44) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 43(54) X(54) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 1(44) X(44) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 89 9(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 64 58 28(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN