Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 180843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) 23(59) X(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 05:48:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 34.2, -63.1 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 63.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 63.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue moving away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today or tonight, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

214
ABNT20 KNHC 180544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 02:40:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 757 WTNT45 KNHC 180238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle. This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the system from the northwest into the central core. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt. The initial motion is 030/7 kt. This slow motion should continue for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the north of Ernesto. After that, southwesterly flow on the east side of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast, northeast, and eventually east-northeast. This motion should bring the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic thereafter. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries to mix out the dry air tongue. After that, upper-level divergence is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively warm water. This could allow some modest re-intensification as show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the intensity forecast. After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition. Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern Atlantic between 72-96 h. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are not quite over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and battering waves should continue for a few more hours. The heavy rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 180237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) X(56) X(56) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 24(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 33.9, -63.3 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 63.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move away from Bermuda tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Some intensification is possible Sunday and Sunday night, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall through Saturday night across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180237 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 63.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 23:42:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 21:22:57 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172339
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 33.5, -63.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 980 WTNT35 KNHC 172336 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 63.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 63.7 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 20:48:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172032 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 Recent infrared and microwave imagery indicate show that Ernesto's convective activity is a little thin, with the deepest convection located in a small band just north of the center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased through the day, and combined with the earlier data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft--which only measured 700-mb wind of 74 kt--it is estimated that Ernesto's maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt. Ernesto has slowed down during the day while moving away from Bermuda, and the initial motion is north-northeastward (030 degrees) at 5 kt. This slow motion is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so, before the flow increases ahead of an approaching trough and causes Ernesto to accelerate toward the north-northeast on Sunday. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward on Monday, and model guidance continues to show the center passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland late Monday or Monday night. After passing Newfoundland, Ernesto is expected to accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the north Atlantic. The track guidance is very tightly packed through 72 hours, and no significant changes were required from the previous NHC forecast. Despite Ernesto's recent weakening, the hurricane will move over warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius and within a light-shear environment for the next 24 hours or so. The storm's current broad structure may not allow for significant strengthening within this otherwise favorable environment, but many of the dynamical hurricane models, global models, and consensus aids suggest that Ernesto could re-intensity by 5-10 kt over the next day or so. This is reflected in the official intensity forecast. Weakening should begin by 48 hours due increasing shear and Ernesto moving over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is likely to become post-tropical by 60 hours while it is passing near southeastern Newfoundland. The GFS and ECMWF models indicate that dissipation should occur by day 4 when the circulation opens up into a trough over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and battering waves should continue through tonight. The heavy rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 33.3N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 172032 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) X(50) X(50) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 33.3, -64.0 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.