Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic
several hundred miles south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 20:44:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 21:23:01 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182042 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve, with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could be a harbinger for more significant intensification. While subjective Dvorak estimates have not increased much this afternoon, the objective intensity values now range from 60-69 kt and so the initial intensity was raised to 65 kt, making Ernesto a hurricane again. Ernesto's wind field is a bit smaller than yesterday, as indicated by a helpful set of scatterometer passes over Ernesto that were useful to adjust the 34- and 50-kt wind radii earlier today. With the improving inner-core structure, Ernesto is looking increasingly likely to take advantage of the favorable short-term conditions until the hurricane reaches the northern extent of the Gulf Stream at around 40 N. The raw output form the hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be well underway by tomorrow afternoon. Shear is also forecast to increase after that time as well, and my best guess at the timing of extratropical transition, diagnosed by FSU cyclone-phase space diagrams and GFS/EC simulated satellite imagery, is shortly after 36 h on Tuesday morning as Ernesto passes just southeast of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the interpolated guidance aids in 12 h, but falls back to the multi-model intensity mean towards the end of its lifespan in 60-h where the cyclone will open up into a trough over the central North Atlantic. Ernesto continues its gradual acceleration north-northeast, estimated now at 020/15-kt. A further increase in forward motion with a turn more northeastward is anticipated over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the hurricane's southeast. A turn more east-northeastward is expected thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone located further north between Greenland and Iceland. The track guidance this cycle remains tightly clustered and pretty close to the prior forecast track, and only slight track adjustments were made this cycle. On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian Provence. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 37.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 182042 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 25(25) 33(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 3 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 37.1, -62.3 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 62.3W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 62.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours followed by weakening before Ernesto becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic several hundred
miles south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 14:50:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 15:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 841 WTNT45 KNHC 181448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 After struggling to produce a lot of deep central convection over the past 24 hours, Ernesto resembles more of a typical tropical cyclone this morning, as convection continues to burst and wrap around the center. There have also been hints of a cloud-filled eye feature showing up on visible satellite imagery. However, subjective and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the modest improvement in Ernesto's structure on satellite, and the initial intensity will remain just under hurricane intensity at 60 kt this advisory. Ernesto has about a 12-18 h window to intensify back into a hurricane while the shear remains low, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are between 27-28 C before the cyclone reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream. After Ernesto crosses this feature, the SSTs sharply decrease and shear markedly increases, both which should initiate extratropical transition. This process should be complete in about 48 h with the cyclone opening up into a trough as it is absorbed by another extratropical cyclone beyond 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from the previous cycle, in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. The tropical cyclone is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward, estimated at 020/14 kt. There is little change in the forecast track thinking, with a large mid-latitude trough moving into the U.S. East Coast that, in combination with a large subtropical ridge to the southeast, is expected to cause Ernesto to increase in forward speed along with a turn more northeastward over the next couple of days. On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian Provence. After post-tropical transition, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward until its absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. The track guidance this cycle was a bit slower and touch further west early on, but ultimately the latest NHC track forecast ends up very close to the prior one after 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 36.1N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 002 FONT15 KNHC 181446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 30(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 36.1, -62.5 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 085 WTNT35 KNHC 181445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 62.5W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 880 MI...1410 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 62.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and some increase in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and Ernesto is forecast to regain hurricane status. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical after it passes by southeastern Newfoundland by Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181442 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 62.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 62.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 170SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 170SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 170SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 62.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic several hundred
miles south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 09:10:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 09:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180855 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 Corrected text of second key message. Ernesto's cloud pattern hasn't changed much overnight, and lacks a well-defined eye feature. Deep convection has been trying to wrap around the eastern portion of the circulation, giving the system a fairly symmetric overall appearance. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is in good agreement with the latest objective, AID, estimates from UW-CIMSS. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates are somewhat lower. Unfortunately the most recent scatterometer overpasses missed most of the circulation. The tropical cyclone continues on a rather slow north-northeastward heading, with an initial motion estimate of 025/8 kt. The steering flow on the east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough approaching the U.S. east coast should cause an increase in forward speed during the next day or so along with a turn toward the northeast. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to turn toward the east-northeast with additional acceleration as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance models remain in good agreement, and little changes to the previous NHC track forecast were required. Ernesto is still over warm waters, and should remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so. Also, vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low today with upper-level divergence diagnosed over the area by the SHIPS model diagnostics. These environmental factors favor a short period of restrengthening today, and this reflected in the official forecast. In 36-48 hours, the cyclone will encounter much cooler waters and this should cause weakening. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the global models show an increasingly asymmetric cloud structure by the time the system passes near Newfoundland, and the official forecast indicates post-tropical transition by 48 hours. Ernesto is predicted to open up and become a large trough over the northeastern Atlantic by 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind and wave impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.6N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 34.6, -63.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 63.0W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 63.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch