Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 172031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 64.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 64.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172031 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..315NE 305SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 64.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 17:46:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 15:22:51 GMT

...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ERNESTO SLOWS DOWN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 33.0, -64.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 171746 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ERNESTO SLOWS DOWN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 64.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin later on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). Bermuda's L.F. Wade International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands. STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171744
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 14:55:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 15:22:51 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171453 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made a couple of passes through Ernesto this morning and only found 700-mb flight level winds as high as 74 kt--significantly lower than the maximum winds reported by the mission yesterday evening and overnight. The initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt for this advisory, and even that could be a bit generous. Although the central pressure has not risen much, Ernesto's wind field has continued to expand, and the hurricane is now exhibiting a large rain-free center region that is just about to move past Bermuda. The forward motion has slowed a bit more and is now estimated to be north-northeastward (025 degrees) at 7 kt. Ernesto has been left behind by a shortwave trough now located near Newfoundland, and therefore a continued slow motion toward the north-northeast is forecast for the next day or so until another trough to the west gets closer. Ernesto should begin accelerating on Sunday as it heads toward Atlantic Canada, turning northeastward and passing very near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. The guidance has again slowed down on this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish a bit during the next 24 hours while Ernesto remains over waters of 28 degrees Celsius, the structure of the hurricane and dry air within the circulation suggest that the storm may not be able to re-intensity much, if at all. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of the guidance and does keep Ernesto as a hurricane for the next 48 hours. Weakening is expected after that time, and global model fields suggest Ernesto should become extratropical by 72 hours while or just after passing Newfoundland. A 96-hour point is provided for continuity, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the circulation could open up into a trough over the north Atlantic by then. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and battering waves are likely through tonight. The heavy rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 32.9N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 171452 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 2(45) X(45) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 32.9, -64.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 171452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 64.4W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). An elevated weather station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane-force gusts are possible on Bermuda for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue through this evening or tonight. STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 171452 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 210SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..320NE 280SE 260SW 280NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 64.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ERNESTO'S CENTER BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND WINDS HAVE PICKED BACK UP ON THE ISLAND... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA THROUGH THIS EVENING... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 32.6, -64.6 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 171155 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO'S CENTER BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND WINDS HAVE PICKED BACK UP ON THE ISLAND... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA THROUGH THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 64.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 64.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today into this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 11:55:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 09:23:05 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located just north-northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 08:59:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 09:23:05 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170857 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda at about 430 AM AST, with the National Museum of Bermuda recently reporting light winds and a central pressure of 972 mb. The system overall has become less organized as drier air has infiltrated much of the circulation's southern semicircle. Earlier aircraft reconnaissance data supported 75-80 kt as an initial intensity, and with the degradation in the satellite imagery, 75 kt is chosen as the current intensity (and operational landfall intensity). The Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be out again in a few hours to sample the cyclone. While the current moderate shear is forecast to weaken today, it will take some time for the vortex to recover from the dry air as it moves across warm waters north of Bermuda. Thus little change in intensity is anticipated in the short term, and re-strengthening could begin tomorrow. This should be a fairly short-lived window, however, since Ernesto will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream on Monday while moving into a strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast for the work week, and Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition near or just east of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, a bit lower in the short-term to account for recent guidance. Ernesto has turned more to the north-northeast overnight and slowed down to about 8 kt. The motion should creep in that direction today as the hurricane is stuck in an area of lighter steering currents, waiting for the next trough to move off the U.S. East coast. This slow motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through tonight on Bermuda. The trough should force the cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night. The guidance is again slower than the previous cycle, so the NHC track forecast is trended in that direction. Global model fields depict that Ernesto should open into a trough, or become absorbed in a larger polar low by 120 h over the northern Atlantic ocean, thus the NHC forecast now shows the system dissipated at that time. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring periods of strong winds, storm surge and battering waves on Bermuda through tonight. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and residents there should listen to orders from local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall from Ernesto will continue to impact Bermuda through tonight and will likely result in considerable life- threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 4. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 32.3, -64.8 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Surface observations indicate that Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda around 430 AM AST (0830 UTC). At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.8 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). The National Museum on Bermuda recently reported a central pressure of 972 mb (28.71 mb). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake