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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 17:50:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 15:23:03 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Five was located near 15.5, -56.4 with movement W at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 121746 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 56.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 56.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

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