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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 20:48:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122045 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Satellite images and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that a center of circulation has now formed, and deep convection is gradually organizing in bands around that feature. A combination of flight-level wind and SFMR data from the aircraft support increasing the winds to 35 kt. Since the system meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and has winds of tropical storm force, it is now designated Tropical Storm Ernesto. Based on the latest satellite images and aircraft data, the center has formed about 30 n mi north of the previous track. This makes the initial motion uncertain, but our best estimate is 285/24 kt. This fast forward speed is due to a strong low- to mid-level ridge situated just north of the system over the subtropical Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, taking the storm across the northern Leeward Islands overnight and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the north over the Atlantic is expected as a deep-layer trough pushes off the U.S. east coast, causing the ridge to shift eastward. The NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one in the short term and lies on the left edge of the guidance through Ernesto's track across the Caribbean. This forecast is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope while it is over the western and central Atlantic. Since Ernesto now has a center and a slightly improved circulation, strengthening seems likely. However, the rate of intensification will likely be slow during the next day or two due to the system's broad structure and ragged convective pattern. More significant strengthening is forecast after Ernesto exits the Caribbean, when nearly all of the environmental conditions appear conducive. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 18.5N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 20.9N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 22.9N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Ernesto was located near 16.0, -57.5 with movement WNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122045 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 57.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 122045 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 29(55) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 49(53) 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 7( 7) 53(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X 13(13) 44(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 28(29) 13(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SABA 34 1 44(45) 14(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SABA 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 51(52) 8(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 57(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 3 33(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ANTIGUA 34 X 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GUADELOUPE 34 7 41(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GUADELOUPE 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DOMINICA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122044 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 60.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 65.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.9N 67.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 64.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 57.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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