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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 08:59:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 09:22:50 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120837 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not well organized. However, these observations also suggest the possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt. The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning northwestward and northward into the break. While the model guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 120837 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 2(29) X(29) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 4(31) X(31) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 19(41) 1(42) X(42) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 16(44) 1(45) X(45) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 11(38) 1(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) SABA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Five was located near 14.4, -52.5 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.