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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 20:52:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Aug 2024 21:23:01 GMT
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
000
WTNT45 KNHC 112049
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past
several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a
well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the
circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
will be investigating this system on Monday.
The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by
Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.
3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress
of this system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
Categories: Weather
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five (AT5/AL052024)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 11
the center of Five was located near 13.6, -48.0
with movement WNW at 21 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
000
WTNT35 KNHC 112049
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and St. Martin.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required
tonight or early Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.6 North, longitude 48.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward
Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 2 inches
Southern Leeward Islands… 2 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 112049
PWSAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) X(34)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) 1(24)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 5(43) X(43)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 1(13)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 4(50) X(50)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 3(41) X(41)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 31(45) 1(46) X(46)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 28(45) 1(46) X(46)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) X(45) X(45)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 19(43) 1(44) X(44)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) 1(38) X(38)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
050
WTNT25 KNHC 112048
TCMAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 48.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 48.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 47.0W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 48.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
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'/>
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111714
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
Categories: Weather
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