Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 52.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches or warnings could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning late tonight or Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120836 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 52.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 52.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 52.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 05:37:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:22:58 GMT

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Five was located near 14.3, -51.4 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120532 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 51.4W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 51.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands... 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 02:49:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120243 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a well-defined circulation has not yet formed. Given the lack of increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The disturbance is expected to pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better assess the status of the system. Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more or less maintain the current heading during that period. In the 2 to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S. east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of the Greater Antilles. Later in the forecast period a turn toward the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated. The NHC forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model consensus. It should again be noted that forecast tracks for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position. The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial development and intensification. The shear is likely to weaken soon and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more conducive over the next few days. The official forecast calls for intensification in general agreement with the intensity model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.1N 50.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 13/1200Z 16.2N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 20.3N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 24.5N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 28.5N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch