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Categories: Sports
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
836
WTNT45 KNHC 121456
TCDAT5
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm
indicate a low-level center could be attempting to form closer to
some increased convective activity within the northern semicircle of
the disturbance. While the disturbance appears to be gradually
becoming better organized in satellite imagery, the lack of a
well-defined center means it will remain a potential tropical
cyclone for this advisory. Based on the flight-level winds and some
distant scatterometer data over the eastern part of the circulation,
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon
and help us assess any changes to the low-level wind field.
Overall, the disturbance has moved a little faster to the west than
previous estimates, and the initial motion remains quickly westward
(280/23 kt). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days
while the system moves around the southwestern extent of the
subtropical ridge. This will bring the center over portions of the
Leeward Islands late tonight into Tuesday, and then near or over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday. By
midweek, the system will reach a weakness in the mid-level ridge
caused by a mid-latitude trough moving across the western Atlantic.
This should induce a northwestward to northward motion during the
latter half of the forecast period. The track guidance envelope has
shifted to the left of the previous track, likely a product of the
faster forward speed and the weaker initial state of the system.
Only small adjustments were made to the near-term NHC track
forecast, with a slightly larger westward adjustment at days 3-5.
Until the disturbance becomes better organized, the large radius of
maximum wind and some northeasterly shear should only allow for
modest strengthening during the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast shows
it becoming a tropical storm in 24 h and continuing to slowly
strengthen while it passes over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Once
the system reaches the western Atlantic, the intensity guidance
favors more significant strengthening, and the system is forecast to
become a hurricane in 3 days and continue intensifying thereafter.
No major changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast this cycle,
which remains close to the multi-model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm as it
reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for most of these islands, where tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin late tonight.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands by later
today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into
Thursday.
3. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 14:58:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2024 15:23:03 GMT
Categories: Weather
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five (AT5/AL052024)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...DISTURBANCE STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 12
the center of Five was located near 15.1, -55.6
with movement W at 26 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
000
WTNT35 KNHC 121456
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...
...DISTURBANCE STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 55.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm Warning.
The government of Antigua has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 55.6 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening. Then, the
disturbance is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico over the
western Atlantic through midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical
depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it
nears the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is
expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday
morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 121456
PWSAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 12(29) 1(30) X(30)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 25(25) 12(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
SABA 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BARBUDA 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 24(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
AVES 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DOMINICA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
000
WTNT25 KNHC 121455
TCMAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 54.6W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 55.6W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather
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