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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 02:44:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130242 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Ernesto remains a rather broad tropical cyclone, and satellite and radar data shows that deep convection has yet to consolidate/concentrate near its center. Tonight's NOAA P-3 TDR data in Ernesto also suggests the broad center currently lacks much vertical alignment. However, there are a number of convective banding features around the circulation and the overall organization of the cloud pattern has been increasing since earlier today. Satellite imagery shows that the upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern is well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory based on observations from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and Dvorak satellite estimates. Since the system is still in the formative stage, there is some scatter in the center position estimates, making the initial motion estimate somewhat uncertain. My best motion estimate is generally westward at a slightly slower speed, around 275/22 kt. During the next day or so, a mid-level ridge to the north of Ernesto should maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a gradually decreasing forward speed. This should take the center of the tropical cyclone over portions of the Leeward Islands very soon, across the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, and near or over portions of Puerto Rico Tuesday evening or Tuesday night. After that, the flow on the eastern side a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. east coast should cause Ernesto turn northward to north-northeastward. Later in the forecast period, the first trough that steers the system northward from the Greater Antilles leaves Ernesto behind, and the tropical cyclone may have to wait for a second trough to steer it farther into the mid-latitudes. The official track forecast is near the left edge of the guidance suite during the first 24-36 hours and close to the simple model consensus from 2-5 days. Assuming that deep convection will increase near the center of Ernesto, the high-level outflow and otherwise conducive oceanic and atmospheric environment favors strengthening during the next few days. Although the intensification is expected to be gradual during the early part of the period, a more rapid rate of strengthening is likely after the system moves north of the Greater Antilles. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.0N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.4N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.7N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 21.7N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 24.0N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 26.1N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 29.9N 65.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 32.7N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 130242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 23(57) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE PR 34 X 7( 7) 26(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 41(41) 32(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) VIEQUES PR 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 55(56) 24(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 1 61(62) 11(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SAINT CROIX 50 X 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 53(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 4 71(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SABA 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 7 69(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 15 63(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 19 20(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ANTIGUA 34 19 17(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GUADELOUPE 34 41 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) AVES 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...ERNESTO APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Ernesto was located near 16.0, -59.6 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...ERNESTO APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 59.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 59.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands by early Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130241 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 59.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.4N 62.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.7N 67.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 67.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N 64.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 59.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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...ERNESTO LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Aug 12 the center of Ernesto was located near 16.0, -58.5 with movement W at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122355 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...ERNESTO LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 58.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 58.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands... 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola... 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch