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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 14:59:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 15:23:16 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Ernesto's center passed near or over Guadeloupe and Montserrat this morning and is now located just south of St. Kitts and Nevis. Aircraft data, satellite images, and radar data show that the storm is becoming better organized, and there are some indications that an inner core is developing. Earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter data supported maximum winds of 40 kt, and given the improved structure since then (and consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB), the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. Ernesto has turned toward the west-northwest, and now has an initial motion of 290/16 kt. A break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to cause Ernesto to turn toward the northwest and then north during the next couple of days, with the storm's center passing near or over the Virgin Islands this evening and then moving northeast and north of Puerto Rico overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance has been very consistent, and no changes were required to the official track forecast compared to the previous issuance. Sea surface temperatures near Ernesto in the northeastern Caribbean Sea are very warm--on the order of 29-30 degrees Celsius--and vertical shear in the atmosphere is relatively light. Combined with the thought that Ernesto is developing an inner core, these ingredients favor quick strengthening over the next day or so. SHIPS and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models indicate that Ernesto could be near or at hurricane strength in about 24 hours, and several of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are notably high. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast is more aggressive than the previous forecast, and brings Ernesto to hurricane strength by 24 hours when the center is north of Puerto Rico. Because there is some risk of the storm becoming a hurricane before that time, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. After moving north of Puerto Rico, additional strengthening is likely, and the NHC forecast is near the high end of the guidance. Ernesto is also likely to grow in size while over the western Atlantic, and that is reflected in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the Leeward Islands today and spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques this evening and tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.0N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.8N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 68.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 28.2N 67.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 31.4N 65.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 34.9N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 131457 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 46(55) 15(70) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 12(39) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 34 11 32(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 35(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 12 44(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 77 16(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) VIEQUES PR 50 5 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) VIEQUES PR 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 93 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 21 33(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT THOMAS 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 91 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT CROIX 50 13 12(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT CROIX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 96 X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABA 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG