Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 358 WTNT25 KNHC 140245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons said there is "no doubt about it" that CeeDee Lamb, currently on Day 21 of his holdout, will suit up for the team in Week 1.

Klay Thompson and his new team, the Mavericks, will face the Warriors in San Francisco on Nov. 12, part of the full NBA Cup schedule unveiled Tuesday on ESPN's "NBA Today."

Cleveland Browns rookie defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. was charged with domestic violence in Avon, Ohio, after allegedly threatening a woman with a gun Monday night, according to a police report.

William Lester Suff, 70, was already on death row for a dozen murders in Southern California. Now, he has confessed to killing a 19-year-old woman, shutting a 1986 cold case, officials said.

Extreme rainfall made 10 percent heavier by human-caused climate change triggered landslides that killed hundreds, according to a new study.

The Cowboys were valued at $10.32 billion as Sportico released franchise valuations for the top 10 NFL teams Tuesday.

After President Biden dropped his re-election bid, his administration released records showing that while he was vice president, his son solicited U.S. government assistance.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located near the Virgin Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 23:51:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.4, -64.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132350 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 64.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla. The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 64.7 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches) based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and will spread over Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra tonight. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Planned in secrecy, the incursion was a bold move to upend the war’s dynamics and put Moscow on the defensive — a gambit that could also leave Ukraine exposed.

WR Martavis Bryant, who was suspended indefinitely by the NFL in 2018 for drug use and reinstated in late 2023, signed with the Commanders, who cited his size as a factor in their decision.

The news radio mainstay is turning its airwaves over to ESPN, ending its continuous coverage of the five boroughs. The Mets broadcasts will remain.

President Biden has had a deep personal interest in cancer research since his son Beau died of an aggressive brain cancer in 2015.

The former prime minister sees Israel threatened by Netanyahu and Iran.

But give the Romanians medals, too.

Donald J. Trump’s campaign has accused Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate, of exaggerating his service in 2018 remarks. The Harris campaign has said he misspoke.

Global trends in economics, climate and technology are weighing on young adults, a report finds. It recommends overhauling how we approach mental health care.