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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 08:59:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 09:23:24 GMT
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
000
WTNT45 KNHC 140853
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
Ernesto continues to gradually become better organized on satellite
imagery and WSR 88-D radar data. Very intense convection has
developed near the center of the storm as well as in a strong band
to the south across Puerto Rico. Earlier Culebra reported
sustained winds of 59 kt and that was the basis for the 60 kt
estimate at 6Z. While it is possible Ernesto is already a
hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade, so 60 kt
remains the initial intensity. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are
scheduled to be in the system later this morning.
The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt. Ernesto is
expected to turn north-northwestward later today and then move to
the north or north-northeast for the next several days while it
moves through a break in the subtropical ridge and interacts with a
mid-latitude trough. There are no notable changes to the NHC track
forecast, with Ernesto forecast to stay offshore of the CONUS and
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday.
Radar data still suggests that Ernesto isn't fully vertically
aligned, with multiple attempts at eye formation failing, probably
due to dry air intrusions. The large-scale conditions still appear
to be conducive for strengthening as the shear remains fairly low
and any residual dry air gradually mixes out of the core. The bulk
of the intensity guidance still shows Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane over the western Atlantic in a couple of days, and the
global models also depict a large and powerful hurricane. Little
change was made to the previous forecast, which remains near the
model consensus.
It should be noted that all of the models are showing Ernesto
becoming quite a bit larger, which should send powerful swells
toward the land area across the western Atlantic. Even if Ernesto
stays well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later
this week.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next
several hours.
2. Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of
Puerto Rico.
3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach
the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 19.5N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 140851
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 63(65) 19(84) 2(86)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) 2(53)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 2(32)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE PR 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM ERNESTO...
As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14
the center of Ernesto was located near 19.5, -66.6
with movement NW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
000
WTNT35 KNHC 140851
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
ERNESTO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Vieques and Culebra.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case through the morning hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through
today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in
the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this
morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A metar station at the Roosevelt Roads Naval
Station (TJNR) recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78
km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). A NOAA Saildrone located
about 65 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently
reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph
(122 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are
expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4
inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch
area during the next few hours.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of
onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the
islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas
on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the
United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
356
WTNT25 KNHC 140850
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 14 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 145SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 66.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 66.0W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 40SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N 68.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 68.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 66.6W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Categories: Weather
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 05:50:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FROM ERNESTO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO...
As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14
the center of Ernesto was located near 19.0, -66.0
with movement NW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Categories: Weather