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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 20:49:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

The event is planned for Tuesday, when Barack Obama speaks in Chicago, and the campaign hopes to hold it at the arena where Republicans held their convention, people briefed on the planning said.

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 012 WTNT45 KNHC 132047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Ernesto's structure continues to gradually increase in organization. There has been some indication of dry air within the circulation and possibly some westerly shear--likely related to the system's continued fast motion--but the maximum winds have been increasing during the day nonetheless. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and believable SFMR winds of 45-50 kt northeast of the center, and dropsonde data showed that the central pressure had fallen to 1001 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. Some satellite estimates suggest the intensity could be slightly higher, but there will be both Air Force and NOAA aircraft in the storm later this evening to confirm these trends. The recent aircraft fixes indicate that Ernesto continues to turn to the right and is moving west-northwestward, or 300/16 kt. This turn is expected to continue for the next couple of days as Ernesto moves toward a break in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. On this track, Ernesto's center should pass over the Virgin Islands later this evening and then pass northeast and north of Puerto Rico overnight and on Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast after 48 hours as Ernesto interacts with a deep-layer trough off the U.S. East Coast, but this trough ends up bypassing Ernesto, resulting in the storm slowing down a bit when it is in the vicinity of Bermuda. The track guidance continues to be very consistent, and again no significant changes were required to the official track forecast compared to the previous issuance. Very warm sea surface temperatures and generally low shear favor continued strengthening over the next few days. SHIPS and the HFIP Corrected Consensus models continue to suggest that Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by 12 hours, and several of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are still well above climatology. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows Ernesto becoming a hurricane by tonight and then peaking at an intensity at or just below major hurricane strength in 60-72 hours. Since there is some chance of Ernesto becoming a hurricane while it is near the Virgin Islands, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the northern Leeward Islands this evening and spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques this evening and tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through this evening, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by this evening through Wednesday. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 132046 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 47(65) 9(74) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 8(41) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE PR 34 10 7(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) AGUADILLA PR 34 8 8(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JUAN PR 34 50 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) VIEQUES PR 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) VIEQUES PR 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAINT THOMAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT JOHN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT JOHN 50 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT JOHN 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 68 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 18.0, -64.1 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Saba and Sint Eustatius * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 64.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be near Bermuda by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by tonight to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at St. Martin. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into tonight. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132046 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 64.1W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 64.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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