5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 11:56:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 09:23:07 GMT

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 16.6, -61.9 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131154 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. St. Barthelemy reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and St. Martin reported a gust of 50 mph (80 km/h) during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area for the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located near the Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 08:34:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2024 09:23:07 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130832 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Satellite imagery and French radar data from Guadeloupe indicate that convection has become more concentrated near the center of Ernesto during the past several hours, and there is increased evidence of cyclonic rotation in the radar imagery. However, this has not yet resulted in significant intensification, with surface obs from the Leeward Islands showing a large area of pressures near 1007-1009 mb and no evidence of any tight wind center. Based on this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/17, a little slower than before. Ernesto should turn west-northwestward with an additional decrease in forward speed during the next 12 h or so as it approaches a developing break in the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday. After that, the flow between the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United States should cause the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward. By the end of the forecast period, this trough is expected to move eastward away from Ernesto, with a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passing north of the storm. This development should cause another decrease in forward speed during the 96-120 h period. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models, and it is also similar to the previous forecast track. Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate shear and over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast period, and this combination should allow it to strengthen. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h primarily due to the current lack of organization. After that, a faster rate of strengthening is expected, with Ernesto forecast to reach hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance, and it lies between the intensity consensus and the upper edge of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday. 3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13 the center of Ernesto was located near 16.2, -61.3 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 61.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. St. Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning: Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 130831 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 13 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 18(61) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 17(35) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 X 13(13) 8(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 11(11) 13(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 17(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) VIEQUES PR 34 1 54(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) VIEQUES PR 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 72(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 4 49(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT CROIX 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 31 19(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SABA 34 56 18(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 1(75) SABA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 66 8(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ST EUSTATIUS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 70 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BARBUDA 34 30 X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ANTIGUA 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GUADELOUPE 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN