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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 17:46:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 15:23:13 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151745 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...HURRICANE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 69.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde observation is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 25.4, -69.3 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...HURRICANE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 69.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde observation is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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